Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 73

February 4, 200415 counties in Kansas; 18 counties in Oklahoma; Lipscomb County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 4, 2004, 3:58 AM CST for 15 counties in Kansas; 18 counties in Oklahoma; Lipscomb County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 4, 2004, 3:58 AM CST (09:58 UTC)
Expired: Feb 4, 2004, 7:00 AM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 34 counties

Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ford County, KS, Harper County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Meade County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Reno County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beaver County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Custer County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Harper County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Logan County, OK, Noble County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Lipscomb County, TX

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1989 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 72 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 181 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

245 
ACUS11 KWNS 040959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040958 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-041300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST WED FEB 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N CNTRL OK...SW/S CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 040958Z - 041300Z

HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/ NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH RATES AROUND AN INCH PER
HOUR IN THE 14-18Z TIME FRAME.

DRY LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...DESPITE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ALOFT HAS
BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING PAST FEW HOURS FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. 
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN EXIT REGION OF
MID/UPPER JET APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD 
CONTINUE/GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/
OKLAHOMA BORDER BY MID MORNING.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUGGEST SATURATION/EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF FALLING PRECIPITATION IN LOWER-LEVELS WILL OCCUR WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH SNOW LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATES-44
AND 35...BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST NOSE OF WEAK MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BEGIN ENHANCING PRECIPITATION RATES.  

WHILE WARMING LOWER-LEVELS MAY GRADUALLY CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO
RAIN IN AREAS NEAR/JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE-44...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE MID DAY HOURS.  PROLONGED
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY WHERE STRONGEST LIFT BECOMES
FOCUSED THIS MORNING...ON COOL SIDE OF TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT...ROUGHLY ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF A GAGE-ENID LINE.

..KERR.. 02/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

34659976 36000028 37160070 37880038 38279819 37689700
37139679 36509692 35849709 35439790 34739824 34509876 

36279974 36559950 36569871 36459796 36239774 35999782
35749822 35749905 35909951

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 4, 10:33 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley, Crawford and 9 more	6 hr
Feb 4, 3:52 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware, Wagoner	4 hr
Feb 4, 3:22 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Aransas, Brazoria, Calhoun, Jackson, Matagorda, Refugio and 3 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.