Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 751
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 18, 2004, 6:24 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 18, 2004, 6:24 PM EDT (22:24 UTC)
- Expired
- May 18, 2004, 8:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 50 counties
Berkshire County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Belknap County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Elk County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, McKean County, PA, Potter County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Bennington County, VT, Orange County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 54 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 6 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -326 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 662 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 201 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 186 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
699 ACUS11 KWNS 182225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182224 VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-NHZ000-190030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN PA...NY...SRN VT/NH...WRN MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 217... VALID 182224Z - 190030Z SEVERE POTENTIAL DIMINISHING OVERALL IN MOST OF WW...THOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS IN BAND FROM DELAWARE/OTSEGO COUNTIES NY ENEWD OVER PORTIONS SRN VT AND SRN NH. ADDITIONAL WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...AND WW 217 MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE AS ANTICIPATED. SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THERMAL AXIS FROM NRN NJ UP HUDSON VALLEY TO NEAR GFL...AND MOIST AXIS PARALLEL BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER E REACHING MAX OF 68 F SFC DEW POINT OVER SRN VT. RUC SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR THIS OPTIMAL OBSERVATION YIELDS APPROXIMATELY 1200 J/KG MLCAPE...THOUGH 500-1000 APPEARS PREVALENT OVER MOST OF PRE-STORM AREA. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO DIMINISH BOTH WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT...AS SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER EWD MOISTURE RESULT IN LOWER THETAE IN STORM INFLOW LAYER. MEANWHILE...A FEW TSTMS MAY MOVE EWD OUT OF NY WITH MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE...PARTICULARLY WITH DIMINISHING TRENDS IN ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY. ..EDWARDS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...GYX...BOX... 41087903 41527908 43097669 43617464 43797330 42057331 43747321 44237183 43727100 42907160 42187244 42037322
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 4:43 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester | 92 min |
| May 18, 12:54 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cattaraugus | 66 min |
| May 18, 1:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Clinton and 28 more | 56 min |
| May 18, 1:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Albany, Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chemung and 39 more | 8 hr |
| May 18, 2:54 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Dutchess, Kings, New York, Orange, Putnam and 3 more | 96 min |
| May 18, 4:38 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Chenango, Cortland, Fulton, Greene, Madison and 7 more | 2 hr |
| May 18, 1:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Fayette and 6 more | 6 hr |
| May 18, 7:09 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Greene and 3 more | 96 min |
| May 18, 7:49 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chester, Delaware, Lancaster, Montgomery, Philadelphia, York | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.