Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 739
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 18, 2004, 1:04 PM EDT for 34 counties in New York; 7 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 56 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 18, 2004, 1:04 PM EDT (17:04 UTC)
- Expired
- May 18, 2004, 2:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 56 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 41 counties
Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 137 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 6 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -326 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 662 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 201 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 186 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
972 ACUS11 KWNS 181704 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181704 VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-181800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NY INTO NERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181704Z - 181800Z WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN NY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND INVOF LAKE BREEZES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AFTERNOON HEATING IS NOW SUPPORTING 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPES OVER THIS REGION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR OVER THIS REGION /I.E. 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT/ ...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING. AS STORMS INCREASE...THEY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ..EVANS.. 05/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... 42357758 43697665 44967365 43497335 42037373 40877593
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 12:54 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cattaraugus | 66 min |
| May 18, 1:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Albany, Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chemung and 39 more | 8 hr |
| May 18, 2:54 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Dutchess, Kings, New York, Orange, Putnam and 3 more | 96 min |
| May 18, 4:38 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Chenango, Cortland, Fulton, Greene, Madison and 7 more | 2 hr |
| May 18, 6:24 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia and 22 more | 2 hr |
| May 18, 1:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Fayette and 6 more | 6 hr |
| May 18, 7:09 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Greene and 3 more | 96 min |
| May 18, 7:49 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chester, Delaware, Lancaster, Montgomery, Philadelphia, York | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.