Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 451
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 23, 2004, 2:41 PM CDT for 24 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 23, 2004, 2:41 PM CDT (19:41 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 23, 2004, 4:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 24 counties
Baylor County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Concho County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jones County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 316 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -273 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1706 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 92 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 194 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
303 ACUS11 KWNS 231941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231941 TXZ000-OKZ000-232145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK INTO W CNTRL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 109... VALID 231941Z - 232145Z CONTINUE WW. STRONG MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD IN CYCLONIC ARC OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FORCING CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM AREAS SOUTHEAST OF GAGE OK INTO NORTHWEST TX...NEAR/NORTHWEST OF ABILENE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...WITH AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR DRY LINE INTERSECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF ABILENE. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN FOCUS FOR MOST INTENSE SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS..AND WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. THOUGH TENDENCY MAY BE FOR COLD FRONT TO UNDERCUT CONVECTION...BRIEF FORMATION OF TORNADOES IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CELLS LIFT NORTH OF BOUNDARY. NORTH/SOUTH LINE OF CONVECTION LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ALONG/JUST NORTH OF COLD FRONT AS FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT EASTWARD... AND THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE. ..KERR.. 04/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31380145 32700090 34549970 34229871 32639887 31609945 30890020 30710125
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 8:00 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cooke, Grayson, Jack | 60 min |
| Apr 22, 9:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Montague | 24 min |
| Apr 22, 11:47 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hansford, Hemphill, Hutchinson, Lipscomb, Ochiltree, Roberts | 58 min |
| Apr 23, 10:10 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens, Foard and 9 more | 3 hr |
| Apr 23, 12:15 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Brown, Callahan, Clay, Coke and 33 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 23, 4:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Brown, Callahan, Clay, Coke and 30 more | 65 min |
| Apr 23, 5:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Brown, Callahan, Clay, Coke and 28 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.