Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 40

January 26, 200420 counties in Georgia; 25 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 26, 2004, 4:15 AM EST for 20 counties in Georgia; 25 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 26, 2004, 4:15 AM EST (09:15 UTC)
Expired
Jan 26, 2004, 10:15 AM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 45 counties

Clarke County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Elbert County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Greene County, GA, Hancock County, GA, Hart County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, Madison County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, Morgan County, GA, Newton County, GA, Oconee County, GA, Oglethorpe County, GA, Putnam County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Walton County, GA, Warren County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Abbeville County, SC, Aiken County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Sumter County, SC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 00:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Charleston AFB, SC at 00:00Z on 2004-01-26Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Charleston AFB, SC at 00:00Z on 2004-01-26The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 667 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
561 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
79 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
667 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
800 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

462 
ACUS11 KWNS 260916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260915 
SCZ000-GAZ000-261515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0040
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC...NERN/ECENTRAL GA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 260915Z - 261515Z

SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA IN THE NEXT 3
HOURS. HOURLY ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.25 IN. WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL SC AND ECENTRAL GA BETWEEN 26/9Z AND
26/13Z...WITH HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS SPREADING NWD INTO NRN SC/NERN
GA BETWEEN 26/12Z AND 26/15Z.

INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS AIDED IN
RAPID EXPANSION AND DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER SRN
GA/AL DURING THE LAST 2 HOURS. UP TO THIS POINT...REMNANT CONFLUENT
MID LEVEL FLOW HAS LIMITED THIS PRECIPITATION FROM MOVING INTO AREAS
BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS EWD OVER
THE AREA...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SHALLOW
SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS. 26/09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SURFACE FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO SINK SLOWLY SWD IN RESPONSE TO
DENSITY EFFECTS...EXTENDING ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SC WWD TO
SOUTH OF AGS AND THE ATL METRO. AS SFC PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE 32 DEG F
ISOTHERM WILL LIKELY REACH ITS SWD/WWD LIMIT SHORTLY AND MAY EVEN
MOVE SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE MID-MORNING.

CONTINUED STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SRN GA/AL WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF ONGOING/NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL/SRN GA...AL SUGGESTS THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE FREEZING RAIN WILL
EXIST ALONG A 30 MILE WIDE AXIS FROM 30 S AGS TO 40 N CHS DURING THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS. WITH TIME...LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS EXPECT MOD-HVY
FREEZING RAIN AXIS TO SHIFT NWD...AND EXTEND FROM INTO THE ATL METRO
AREA NEWD TO NORTH OF THE CAE AREA AFTER 26/12Z.

..CROSBIE.. 01/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

32688026 33008131 33208327 33598396 34688283 34437933

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 26, 3:10 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Calhoun, Clay, Decatur, Dougherty, Early and 4 more3 hr
Jan 26, 5:15 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCBaker, Calhoun, Clay, Crisp, Decatur, Dougherty and 12 more6 hr
Jan 26, 8:00 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Calhoun, Clay, Crisp, Decatur, Dougherty and 12 more2 hr
Jan 26, 10:30 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCAtkinson, Bacon, Baker, Berrien, Brooks, Calhoun and 19 more6 hr
Jan 26, 3:00 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtkinson, Brantley, Charlton, Clinch, Echols, Lanier and 3 more60 min
Jan 26, 5:57 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBanks, Barrow, Clarke, Elbert, Franklin, Greene and 13 more5 hr
Jan 26, 8:38 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDillon, Marlboro6 hr
Jan 26, 11:51 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAbbeville, Aiken, Barnwell, Calhoun, Chester, Chesterfield and 21 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.