Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 39

January 26, 200413 counties in Alabama; 14 counties in Florida; 10 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 26, 2004, 2:10 AM CST for 13 counties in Alabama; 14 counties in Florida; 10 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 26, 2004, 2:10 AM CST (08:10 UTC)
Expired: Jan 26, 2004, 4:45 AM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 37 counties

Baldwin County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Butler County, AL, Coffee County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Dale County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Pike County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Escambia County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Leon County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Baker County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Seminole County, GA

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 2Jan 26, 4:15 AM CST

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -50 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 547 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 333 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 433 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

350 
ACUS11 KWNS 260811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260810 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-261045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/FL PNHDL AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 260810Z - 261045Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH
LATER THIS MORNING.

OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
HAVE INDICATED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FROM SE OF CSG SWWD TO AROUND PNS. LOCAL VWPS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC
FIELDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN A BROAD WAA REGIME
WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST ETA
AND RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ
JET AXIS AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER ERN TX/ TRANSLATES EWD
ACROSS THE NWRN GULF COAST. 

07Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS /CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F/ FROM THE FL PNHDL COAST SWD/SWWD TO BUOYS
42040/42039. INCREASING SLY WINDS BENEATH DEVELOPING LLJ AXIS SHOULD
EXPEDITE NWD ADVECTION OF THIS AIRMASS ACROSS THE FL PNHDL INTO SRN
AL/SWRN GA THROUGH 26/12Z. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE COUPLED WITH
COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES
APPROACHING 500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONCURRENTLY INCREASE AS
75-85KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGES FROM THE TROUGH BASE OVER THE
CNTRL GULF COAST...RESULTING IN WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER...LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN
CURRENT LCL HEIGHTS OF 700-900M AND 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 150-250
M2/S2.

RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND IF TSTMS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 4
HOURS.

..MEAD.. 01/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

30458807 31258781 31748690 31898608 31898553 31848497
31508410 31018392 30078424 29548523 29528689

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 26, 4:15 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baldwin, Barbour, Butler, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington and 7 more	6 hr
Jan 26, 7:00 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baldwin, Barbour, Butler, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington and 7 more	2 hr
Jan 26, 9:30 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston	6 hr
Jan 26, 11:10 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bay, Gulf	65 min
Jan 26, 2:00 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baker, Columbia, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Madison and 4 more	60 min
Jan 26, 3:15 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clarke, Columbia, Elbert, Glascock, Greene, Hancock and 14 more	6 hr
Jan 26, 4:57 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Banks, Barrow, Clarke, Elbert, Franklin, Greene and 13 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.