Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 4

January 3, 2004Phillips County, Yuma County, Colorado; 7 counties in Kansas; 19 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 3, 2004, 2:02 PM MST for Phillips County, Yuma County, Colorado; 7 counties in Kansas; 19 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 3, 2004, 2:02 PM MST (21:02 UTC)
Expired: Jan 3, 2004, 7:30 PM MST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 28 counties

Phillips County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Norton County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Smith County, KS, Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Chase County, NE, Clay County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Dundy County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Hall County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Hayes County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Red Willow County, NE, Webster County, NE

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 116 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1370 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 95 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -67 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 55 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

891 
ACUS11 KWNS 032103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032102 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-040230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...FAR NWRN KS...SWRN AND S-CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 032102Z - 040230Z

AXIS OF 1/HR SNOWFALL LIKELY FROM NERN CO ENEWD ACROSS FAR NWRN KS
AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL NEB THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT.

IR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN EXPANDING REGION OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX AND
STRONG 300MB JET ENTRANCE REGION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THE
ASSOCIATED 700MB VORT CENTER WILL SHIFT ENEWD TO N-CENTRAL KS BY
04/12Z PER 12Z ETA SOLUTION. ON THE MESOSCALE...700MB FRONTOGENESIS
HAS BEEN STRONG THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. SNOW RATES HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE BY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...HOWEVER...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BETWEEN
00-06Z AS UPPER TROUGH EMERGES SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPER LAYER
SATURATION...PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND EVENTUAL MOISTENING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
LIKELY TO STEEPEN...AIDING IN PRECIPITATION RATES. BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF 700MB WAVE LATE
TONIGHT...MAINTAINING FAVORABLE MESOSCALE FRONTOGENETIC AXIS ACROSS
NERN CO/SWRN NEB/NWRN KS THROUGH 06Z. PERIODS OF 1/HR SNOWS APPEAR
LIKELY WITHIN THIS REGION BETWEEN 00-06Z COINCIDENT WITH LOCATION OF
BEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUPPORT.

..BANACOS.. 01/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

39659941 39500090 39410208 39710277 40430286 40770189
40990014 41019814 40349764 39759807

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 3, 12:57 PM MST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alamosa, Archuleta, Chaffee, Conejos, Custer, Delta and 11 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2004 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.