Alert archive / Colorado / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 3

January 3, 200417 counties in Colorado

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 3, 2004, 12:57 PM MST for 17 counties in Colorado. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 3, 2004, 12:57 PM MST (19:57 UTC)
Expired: Jan 3, 2004, 7:00 PM MST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Alamosa County, CO, Archuleta County, CO, Chaffee County, CO, Conejos County, CO, Custer County, CO, Delta County, CO, Gunnison County, CO, Hinsdale County, CO, Mesa County, CO, Mineral County, CO, Montrose County, CO, Ouray County, CO, Pitkin County, CO, Rio Grande County, CO, Saguache County, CO, San Juan County, CO, San Miguel County, CO

The radar

The Grand Junction radar (KGJX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Grand Junction, CO (KGJT), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 660 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 122 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 121 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 57 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

140 
ACUS11 KWNS 031957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031957 
COZ000-NMZ000-040200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN QUARTER OF CO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 031957Z - 040200Z

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SWRN CO OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS....CONTINUING THROUGH ROUGHLY 04/03Z.  RATES OF
2/HR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY GREATER RATES OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MAIN VORT MAX OVER SERN NV WITH 
A SECONDARY FEATURE NOW IN SERN UT...BOTH NEAR THE BASE OF SRN
STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.  

AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS...LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SLY / SWLY ACROSS THIS
REGION...AND SLY COMPONENT SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL TROUGH PASSES
ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE WLY / NWLY.  AS A RESULT...LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL LIFT / UVV ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL FEATURES SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW THROUGH 04/02-03Z.  ADDITIONALLY...LOCAL
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES MAY OCCUR AS NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS
REGION.  

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS IN
ADVANCE OF INITIAL VORT MAX...AND THEN AGAIN LATER -- BETWEEN 04/00Z
AND 04/02-03Z -- AHEAD OF SECOND / STRONGER FEATURE.

..GOSS.. 01/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...

39410881 39610737 38810580 37540502 36870699 37660840
38520889

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 3, 2:02 PM MST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Phillips, Yuma	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2004 Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.