Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 366

April 18, 20044 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 18, 2004, 12:26 PM EDT for 4 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 18, 2004, 12:26 PM EDT (16:26 UTC)
Expired
Apr 18, 2004, 3:00 PM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Alger County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI

The radar

The Marquette radar (KMQT), 61 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2004-04-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2004-04-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 103 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
639 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
103 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
427 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

292 
ACUS11 KWNS 181626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181626 
MIZ000-WIZ000-181900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181626Z - 181900Z

VERY INTENSE SMALL SCALE TSTM COMPLEX IS MOVING EAST OVER MARQUETTE
AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI THIS  MORNING.
ACTIVITY APPEARS ROOTED ON STRONG 850MB FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS
THE REGION AND IS BEING FUELED BY PLUME OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. APPARENTLY STRORMSCALE
UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO LOCALLY
OVERCOME SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AND PRODUCE 50-60KT WIND GUSTS AT
THE GROUND...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. RECENT RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST
LEWP AND BOW STRUCTURES HAVE ALSO FORMED BUT VIL AND REFLECTIVITY
TRENDS INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING.

DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE WARM
FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA INTO THIS AFTERNOON...IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION WITH EWD EXTENT. WHILE LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A
HAZARD FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...LIMITED
AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT PROBABLY MEANS A WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED.

..CARBIN.. 04/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

46438561 46048572 45928623 45878704 45858801 45898820
46198828 46728803

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 18, 2:49 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenzie, Grand Traverse, Manistee, Mason, Wexford56 min
Apr 18, 9:04 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGogebic, Iron, Ontonagon86 min
Apr 18, 7:35 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCIron5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.