Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 2221

September 16, 200438 counties in Alabama; 21 counties in Florida; 46 counties in Georgia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 16, 2004, 7:03 AM CDT for 38 counties in Alabama; 21 counties in Florida; 46 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 16, 2004, 7:03 AM CDT (12:03 UTC)
Expired
Sep 16, 2004, 9:00 AM CDT
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 105 counties

Autauga County, AL, Baldwin County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Butler County, AL, Chambers County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Coffee County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Dale County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Greene County, AL, Hale County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Pike County, AL, Russell County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Washington County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Escambia County, FL, Gadsden County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Hamilton County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Jefferson County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Leon County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Madison County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Atkinson County, GA, Baker County, GA, Ben Hill County, GA, Berrien County, GA, Brooks County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Clay County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Colquitt County, GA, Cook County, GA, Crawford County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Echols County, GA, Grady County, GA, Harris County, GA, Irwin County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Lanier County, GA, Lee County, GA, Lowndes County, GA, Macon County, GA, Marion County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Muscogee County, GA, Peach County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Schley County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Talbot County, GA, Taylor County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Thomas County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Webster County, GA, Worth County, GA

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2004-09-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 878 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2004-09-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 428 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
878 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
725 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
428 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
501 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.8
Supercell composite
13.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

300 
ACUS11 KWNS 161207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161203 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-161400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...AL...SWRN GA...FL PNHDL AND PARTS OF NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 826...827...

VALID 161203Z - 161400Z

CENTER OF IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND WAS MOVING NNEWD
ACROSS MONROE COUNTY ALABAMA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE
CONVECTIVE FEEDER BANDS CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE CENTER OF
THE DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN AND NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. WIND PROFILE DATA OVER A LARGE AREA OF
AL/SRN GA AND NRN FL WERE INDICATING VERY INTENSE TO EXTREME VALUES
OF 0-1KM HELICITY...ON THE ORDER OF 600-1200 M2/S2. JUST ABOUT ANY
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ACQUIRE
ROTATION AND COULD END UP PRODUCING A TORNADO.

SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITHIN AN OUTER
RAINBAND LOCATED FROM CROSS CITY, FL TO NE OF MONTGOMERY, AL. A FEW
ROTATING CELLS WITHIN THIS ARC OVER FL AND GA ARE OVER 200 MILES
FROM THE CENTER OF IVAN. THIS IS AN INDICATION OF JUST HOW LARGE THE
STRONG WIND FIELD IS WITH THIS HURRICANE.

ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS CG LIGHTNING
STRIKES WAS NEAR THE AL/GA LINE. THIS BAND...BEING CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF IVAN IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN AN EVEN MORE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND ANY CELLS WITHIN THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A
THREAT OF TORNADOES.

TORNADO POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF IVAN....
INCLUDING MOBILE, AL...APPEARS TO BE LESSENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
AWAY. SOME OF THESE AREAS WILL BE CLEARED FROM TORNADO WATCH 826
SHORTLY.

..CARBIN.. 09/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

29498263 30218819 33408825 32688370 31988369 31878263

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 15, 8:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Clarke, Coffee and 17 more2 hr
Sep 15, 10:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Barbour, Bibb, Bullock, Chambers, Chilton and 20 more115 min
Sep 16, 1:10 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAutauga, Baldwin, Barbour, Bibb, Bullock, Butler and 34 more9 hr
Sep 16, 2:57 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Baldwin, Barbour, Bibb, Bullock, Butler and 33 more2 hr
Sep 16, 9:09 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Calhoun, Chambers and 25 more66 min
Sep 16, 9:45 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAutauga, Barbour, Bullock, Calhoun, Chambers, Cherokee and 17 more10 hr
Sep 16, 9:50 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCCoffee, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston, Pike10 hr
Sep 16, 1:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Bullock, Calhoun, Chambers, Cherokee, Clay and 15 more119 min
Sep 16, 5:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Chambers, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, DeKalb and 6 more2 hr
Sep 16, 5:00 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCColumbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Lafayette, Madison and 2 more5 hr
Sep 16, 9:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBryan, Bulloch, Burke, Candler, Chatham, Columbia and 16 more2 hr
Sep 16, 11:20 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBryan, Bulloch, Burke, Candler, Chatham, Columbia and 19 more9 hr
Sep 16, 2:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBulloch, Burke, Candler, Columbia, Effingham, Emanuel and 11 more119 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.