Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
347 PM MDT SUN AUG 1 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY.  DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN RETURN BY
MID-WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ADDED DYNAMICS FROM A WEAK BUT
EFFICIENT SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW MOVING ALONG THE NV-UT BORDER.
MODERATE FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING FAST MOVING STORMS...A LINE OF WHICH
PRODUCED A STRONG OUTFLOW THAT MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON.  APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE NV-UT
WAVE...THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF CONVECTION IS BUBBLING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.  OTHER CONVECTION JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN
AZ.  WITH AIRMASS REMAINING MOIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
AND AROUND MID-LEVELS...AND WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICS SWINGING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIF...WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.  AERIAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT HOWEVER.  ONE AREA THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING IS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA.  THIS AREA IS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER
DYNAMICS SO IT COULD VERY WELL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTH AND ACROSS
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP TOMORROW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ABOUT THREE
QUARTERS IN THE NORTH.  AIRMASS IS ONLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE...THE
SLC ETA BUFR LIFTED INDEX AROUND -2 AND AROUND 400 J/KG CAPE BY 00Z
TUE.  WILL PARTIALLY OFFSET THAT WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF A JET MAX
PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH UTAH FROM AROUND THE CALIF LOW THAT WILL
BE LIFTING OUT.  MAIN THREAT WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...BUT
WILL NOT RULE OUT BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.  SOUTHERN TIER...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHEAST...MIGHT HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR HEAVIER RAIN GIVEN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MONDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT HEIGHT RISES AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE SO TRW
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THAT AREA PLUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS CENTRAL
AND EAST.  OTHERWISE NOT MUCH TO WORK WITH ELSEWHERE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR WED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.  AREA REMAINS IN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACCORDING TO THE GFS. FLOW IS FAIRLY FAST SO EMPHASIS WILL BE ON
FIRE WEATHER MONITORING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING LIGHTNING AND
POSSIBLE NEW FIRE STARTS TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE
     WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH. SEE SLCRFWSLC FOR DETAILS.
WY...NONE.
ID...NONE.

&&

JACKSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
658 AM MDT SUN AUG 1 2004

UTZ001>021-WYZ021-021300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-CASTLE COUNTRY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-
WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
658 AM MDT SUN AUG 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
UTAH AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH ACROSS UTAH WILL BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WILDLAND FIREFIGHTERS FOR THESE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SEE SLCRFWSLC FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
432 PM MDT SUN AUG 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND GST     14 SW DUGWAY            40.09N 112.94W
08/01/2004  70 MPH           TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            NUMEROUS GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH IN THE ADJACENT MESONET
            SITES

0115 PM     TSTM WND GST     15 E LAKESIDE           41.21N 112.59W
08/01/2004  66 MPH           BOX ELDER          UT   MESONET

0210 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 NE LUCIN             41.49N 113.73W
08/01/2004  58 MPH           BOX ELDER          UT   MESONET

&&

MCC