Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
945 AM MDT SUN AUG 1 2004

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND LINGER
MONDAY. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN RETURN BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOOD BATCH OF MOISTURE...MAINLY AT MID LEVELS...IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING.
WEAK UPPER LOW THAT YESTERDAY WAS OVER BAJA HAS TRACKED NORTH AND
APPEARS TO BE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA BASED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.  JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE CONVECTION HAS FIRED...ONE AREA
ALONG THE UT-NV BORDER IN THE SOUTHWEST...ANOTHER WEAKER MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  STORM MOTION IS PRETTY FAST IN THIS
STRONG FLOW.  MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS CONTINUES TO BE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP
SOME OVER THE LAST 24 HRS...BUT ARE STILL RELATIVELY LOW COMPARED TO
THOSE DURING OUR LAST MONSOONAL SURGE.  WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE
AND EVEN GRADUALLY INCREASING TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH ROUGHLY EQUAL CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME.  ETA
PUTS AREA OF PRECIP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE CALIF LOW APPROACHING.  WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS OVER NV
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PINPOINTING IT IN NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.

FOR TOMORROW...OUR UPPER FLOW TURNS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALIF LIFTS NORTHEAST.
INCREASED DYNAMICS FROM THIS LOW...COMBINED WITH DEEPENING
MOISTURE...WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABLE EXPECT HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COMPARED TO TODAY.  ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT LOW LEVELS STILL
DONT MOISTEN UP TOO MUCH TOMORROW.  WITH MODERATE STEERING FLOW
STORMS WILL BE MOVING ALONG...SO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS STILL THE
BETTER PROBABILITY.

12Z ETA KEEPING WITH IDEA OF DRYING AREA OUT STARTING TUESDAY AS THE
CALIF LOW LIFTS OUT AND LEAVES THE AREA IN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW.
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...JUST BRUSHING THE EXTREME EAST AND POSSIBLY THE
UINTAS.

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR NOW BUT WILL POSSIBLY TWEAK SOME POPS AND
CLOUD COVER IN SPOTS TO COVER THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING TODAY MOST OF THE WESTERN
     TWO-THIRDS OF UTAH. SEE SLCRFWSLC FOR DETAILS.
WY...NONE.
ID...NONE.

&&

GIBSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
658 AM MDT SUN AUG 1 2004

UTZ001>021-WYZ021-021300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-CASTLE COUNTRY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-HENRY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SOUTHWEST UTAH-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-
WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WEST CENTRAL UTAH-WESTERN UINTA BASIN-WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
658 AM MDT SUN AUG 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
UTAH AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH ACROSS UTAH WILL BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WILDLAND FIREFIGHTERS FOR THESE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SEE SLCRFWSLC FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.