Tornado Warning 24, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1111 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

.UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATE TO FOLLOW WITH NEWLY ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES. COLD FRONT TO PUSH
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DRYLINE
APPROACHES OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALREADY DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD FROM OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TX ALONG
THE FRONT. AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES...ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. ALSO HAVE
ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN AN AREA
OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...AND WILL ADJUST TIMING OF SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF KANSAS...AND IS ABOUT TO KISS THE TIP OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE.  SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TO NEAR
ABI AROUND SUNSET...SJT AROUND 9-10 PM...AND NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
BY MIDNIGHT.  RAIN CHANCES LOOK GOOD AS LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOISTURE
RICH...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  DYNAMICS
IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...WILL
MENTION SEVERE IN FORECAST.

DRYLINE WILL BE A PLAYER AS WELL...AND SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.  DRYLINE SHOULD RETREAT WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  SO IT IS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
FIRE.  SPC HIGHLIGHTS 21 TO 03Z (4-10 PM LOCAL) AS THE PEAK SEVERE
THREAT TIME.

EVEN WITHOUT THUNDERSTORMS...POST FRONTAL OVERRUNNING SHOULD GIVE
GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AREA WIDE...WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS. HOPING ALL OUR COUNTIES SEE SOME
RAIN...HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY...IT SHOULD HANG ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...WITH CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CARRY LOW POPS
INTO SATURDAY FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

NICE NEAR NORMAL MAY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AMAZINGLY
ABILENE HAS YET TO SEE THE FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURE OF THE
YEAR. AT THIS POINT SHOULD PASS MID MAY WITHOUT REACHING 90.

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR HASKELL AND
THROCKMORTON COUNTIES.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
430 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-140930-
BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-COKE TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-CROCKETT TX-
FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-IRION TX-JONES TX-KIMBLE TX-MASON TX-
MCCULLOCH TX-MENARD TX-NOLAN TX-RUNNELS TX-SAN SABA TX-SCHLEICHER TX-
SHACKELFORD TX-STERLING TX-SUTTON TX-TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
TOM GREEN TX-
430 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY LINE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY THREAT
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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