Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 260447
FFSSJT
TXC441-260600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1145 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR TAYLOR
COUNTY...

AT 1140 PM CDT...THE ABILENE POLICE DEPARTMENT ADVISES AGAINST 
DRIVING IN THE CITY THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STREETS ARE FLOODED AND
THERE HAS BEEN NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES. THE POLICE DEPARTMENT HAS 
STATED THAT EVERY LOW LYING SPOT IS FLOODED. CREEKS HAVE RISEN NEAR 
THE BOTTOM OF SEVERAL BRIDGES.

WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL BE MOVING INTO 
ABILENE AROUND 1 AM. THIS WILL PRODUCE PERHAPS AROUND 1/10 INCH OF 
RAIN. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

LAT...LON 3209 10016 3210 9965 3251 9962 3250 10008

$$

04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
839 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SPREADING FROM THE
NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AT MID EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAD WEAKENED SINCE 6 PM...THOUGH WERE STILL PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BEING
SUSTAINED FROM A LOW LEVEL JET REACHING 30KTS...PER KSJT VAD WIND
PROFILER.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE INTO
VAL VERDE COUNTY...HEADED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET AND STRONG 250 MB DIVERGENCE PERSISTING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE.

PRESENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
OBVIOUS MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING.  CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING OVER OUR AREA.  PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE WITH MID 60F DEWPOINTS AND PW NEAR
2 INCHES ON 12Z DRT SOUNDING AND 1 INCH ON 12Z MAF SOUNDING.  A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG JUST NORTH OF LBB TO CDS. 12Z GFS AND ETA
MODEL RUNS SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH INCREASING THE
LLJ AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF MEXICO OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WITH THE FRONT SHOULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS AND THEN INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY TUESDAY MORNING.  WE DECIDED TO GO WITH A FFA FOR THE
WHOLE COUNTY AREA AS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL AND THE MAIN HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS.  SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
AFFECT OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL.

AFTER TUESDAY...KEEP SOME POPS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME HANDLING THE TIMING OF ANY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AS STRONG JET REMAINS OVER THE AREA.  WE TREND POPS
DOWN WED THROUGH THU AND THEN SLIGHT INCREASE AGAIN FRI AS POSSIBLE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.  FRONT QUICKLY STALLS AND WASHES OUT SAT
AND SUN.  SUN INTO MON ANOTHER LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPS IN SW KS WITH
PACIFIC FRONT OR DRYLINE.  WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN THE EASTERN
AREAS...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AS DRY SLOT MAY SET UP WHICH MAY
DECREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 PM TUESDAY FOR ALL ZONES.

&&

10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
132 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-261900-
BROWN TX-CALLAHAN TX-COKE TX-COLEMAN TX-CONCHO TX-CROCKETT TX-
FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-IRION TX-JONES TX-KIMBLE TX-MASON TX-
MCCULLOCH TX-MENARD TX-NOLAN TX-RUNNELS TX-SAN SABA TX-SCHLEICHER TX-
SHACKELFORD TX-STERLING TX-SUTTON TX-TAYLOR TX-THROCKMORTON TX-
TOM GREEN TX-
132 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

A TROPICAL-LIKE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

23/HUBER