Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST TUE DEC 28 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL OCCUR AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A WINTER STORM
WARNING ABOVE 6500 FEET. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

THE FIRST IMPULSE OF THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT RAIN THIS
MORNING. SNOW OCCURRED ABOVE 5500 FEET ON THE NORTH SLOPES IN SBD
COUNTY AND 6500 FEET ELSEWHERE. BIG BEAR AND WRIGHTWOOD BOTH HAD
REPORTS OF 4 OF SNOW...THOUGH THE SNOW HAD TRANSFORMED INTO MIXED
PRECIP AT BIG BEAR. THE HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE LOCALLY 2-3 ON
S SLOPES IN SBD COUNTY. MINOR FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED. ACARS
SOUNDINGS FROM PLANES THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS JUST WEST
OF LINDBERGH FIELD SHOWED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 55 KNOTS AT 2500
FEET...AND THIS CONTRIBUTED TO THE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. ALSO...BURNS CANYON IN THE SBD MTNS RECORDED A GUST OF 59
MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND FREMONT CANYON IN THE SANTA ANA MTNS
RECORDED A GUST OF 63 MPH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE MOIST FLOW. THE NEXT IMPULSE...NOW
WRAPPING AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE LARGE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE...WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...AND THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER...SO
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIKELY...AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES...LOCALLY
REACH ONE INCH PER HOUR...WILL BE POSSIBLE. WATERSPOUTS WILL BE A
THREAT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY/STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW. ETA HAS ANOTHER VORT MAX BEHIND THE 2ND IMPULSE WED
AFTERNOON...SO THIS MIGHT PROLONG THE SHOWERS...THOUGH THE SUPPORT
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST.

TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 1-2.5 INCHES IN THE HIGH
DESERTS...2-3 INCHES IN COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS WITH LOCAL 4 INCHES
TOTALS WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS...AND 3-6 INCHES IN MOST OF THE MTNS.
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED MTN SLOPES SHOULD STILL GET AROUND 10 INCHES.

THE LONG-RANGE BIG PICTURE IS FOR CONTINUED BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND BRING MORE CHANCES OF PRECIP. THE BEST
CHANCES RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY...AND I HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 400 PM WEDNESDAY...SEE
LAXFFASGX.

RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO AND SAN LUIS REY RIVERS...SEE
LAXRVSSGX.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET UNTIL 400 PM WEDNESDAY...SEE LAXWSWSGX.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO...RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS BELOW 6500 FEET UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY...SEE
LAXNPWSGX.

WIND ADVISORY ALL OTHER AREAS UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

GALE WARNING INNER AND OUTER WATERS TODAY...SEE LAXCWFSGX.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE STORM...SEE LAXMWSSGX.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...SEE LAXHWOSGX.

&&

MAXWELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PST TUE DEC 28 2004

CAZ042-043-048-050-055>058-060>062-291400-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
300 AM PST TUE DEC 28 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING A LONG DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION...HEAVY AT TIMES...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LOCAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AND
BELOW RECENTLY BURNED AREAS. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES IN THE DESERTS...2 TO 4 INCHES IN MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY
AREAS...AND 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES
OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS COULD HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 10
INCHES. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL START ABOVE 7000 FEET AND THEN LOWER TO
NEAR 5500 FEET WEDNESDAY.

THE FOLLOWING WARNINGS...WATCHES AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL 400 PM WEDNESDAY...SEE
LAXFFASGX.

RIVER FLOOD STATEMENT FOR SAN DIEGO AND SAN LUIS REY RIVERS...SEE
LAXRVSSGX.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500 FEET UNTIL 400 PM WEDNESDAY...SEE LAXWSWSGX.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO...RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTY MOUNTAINS BELOW 6500 FEET UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY...SEE
LAXNPWSGX.

WIND ADVISORY ALL OTHER AREAS UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

GALE WARNING INNER AND OUTER WATERS TODAY...SEE LAXCWFSGX

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE LAXMWSSGX.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DECREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION STATEMENT...WEATHER SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED.

ATKIN