Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX AND POTENTIALLY SERIOUS SITUATION MAY UNFOLD THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE OZARKS.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CREATING SEVERAL TYPES OF
HAZARDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
CLOSE ATTENTION TO NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT FEATURES WILL BE NEEDED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL
BE THE INITIAL CHALLENGE THIS MORNING.  THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY
OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.  FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS
COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI.  RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW VOLUME SCANS.  HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  MEANWHILE...A COLD POOL /
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG INTERSTATE 70 CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH
TIME...AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
ENVIRONMENT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI WILL
BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.  FURTHER DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
LARGER SCALE CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING.  THIS AREA
OF ASCENT INDICATED BY HIGH CLOUDINESS ON I.R. IMAGERY...WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS MOVES INTO THE
VICINITY OF DRYLINE...STORMS WILL FIRE IN AN ENVIRONMENT RICH IN
MOISTURE AND STRONG INSTABILITY.  MIXED LAYER CAPES ON THE ORDER OF
3000 - 3500 J/KG WILL STRETCH FROM WESTERN MISSOURI AND BACK INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.  AS STORMS EMERGE AND PROGRESS EAST WITH TIME...THEY
WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX AS THEY MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY IN PLACE...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE IN
NATURE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO BECOME A HAZARD WITH ANY
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT MCS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.  SUNDAYS CONVECTION
WILL DEPEND UPON WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  IN ANY
CASE...SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME VERY UNSTABLE.  AT
THIS POINT...THERE IS NO IDENTIFIABLE TRIGGER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
STORMS...OTHER THAN LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS
ACTION.  WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY - FRIDAY)...
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SPREADING IN A DRIER AIRMASS BY MONDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PUT AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS AT LEAST.  HOWEVER...THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS MASS WILL SURGE
BACK IN BY LATE TUESDAY.  SEE NO FOCUS TO GENERATE PRECIP...SO
CONTINUED THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...
STORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN MO CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH WHILE SMALL
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER EASTERN KS MOVES NORTHEAST. WHILE NOT LIKELY
TO AFFECT KSGF AND KJLN...SCATTERED STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
ROUTES OVER EASTERN KS AND CNTRL MO EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
STORMS TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER
EASTERN KS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE KSGF AND KJLN DURING THE EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
116 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-131100-
BARRY-BARTON-BENTON-BOURBON-CAMDEN-CEDAR-CHEROKEE-CHRISTIAN-CRAWFORD-
DADE-DALLAS-DENT-DOUGLAS-GREENE-HICKORY-HOWELL-JASPER-LACLEDE-
LAWRENCE-MARIES-MCDONALD-MILLER-MORGAN-NEWTON-OREGON-OZARK-PHELPS-
POLK-PULASKI-SHANNON-ST. CLAIR-STONE-TANEY-TEXAS-VERNON-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...
FORT LEONARD WOOD...FORT SCOTT...HOUSTON...JOPLIN...LEBANON...
MONETT...MOUNT VERNON...NEOSHO...NEVADA...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...
PITTSBURG...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD...STOCKTON AND WEST PLAINS.
116 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL
  UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE, ISOLATED TORNADOES, AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 4 PM AND ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
  AFTER 7 PM.

  DISCUSSION:

  THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE UNDER SUNNY SKIES
  OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
  WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATER THIS
  AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS THUNDERSTORMS
  FROM NEAR PARSONS KANSAS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
  OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
  POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
  THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, AN VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
  OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
  INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ACT AS AN ADDITIONAL TRIGGER FOR
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THE STORMS WILL
  THEN OVERSPREAD THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
  TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY LARGE
  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
  POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE, VERY HEAVY RAIN IS
  ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AFTER 5 PM IN SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND AFTER 8 PM ELSEWHERE.

BROWNING

MOZ078>080-089>091-095-096-103>105-010000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1020 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

MOZ078>080-089>091-095-096-103>105-121719-
CEDAR-CHRISTIAN-DADE-DALLAS-DOUGLAS-GREENE-OZARK-POLK-STONE-TANEY-
WEBSTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AVA...BOLIVAR...BRANSON...OZARK...
SPRINGFIELD AND STOCKTON.
1020 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAUSING AN OMINOUS LOOKING SHELF CLOUD TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...

AT 1020 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR DADEVILLE...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO SPARTA.
THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING AN OMINOUS LOOKING SHELF CLOUD TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.  MODERATE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHELF CLOUD.

ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS MAY APPEAR TO ROTATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AT
TIMES...TORNADOES ARE NOT LIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...
ROTATION MAY BE OBSERVED ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

FOSTER