Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WGUS72 KRAH 081610
FFSRAH
NCC007-081700-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1208 PM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR ANSON COUNTY UNTIL 
1 PM...

AT 1202 PM EDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN OVER ANSON COUNTY 
FROM ANSONVILLE TO WADESBORO...MOVING NORTH. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WATER LEVELS WILL START 
TO SLOWLY FALL AFTER 1 PM AND NO MORE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAIN IS 
EXPECTED AFTER 1 PM.

LOCATIONS THREATENED WITH FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...WADESBORO...
MINERAL SPRINGS...LONG PINE...BARNSVILLE...ANSONVILLE.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER IS USUALLY DEEPER
THAN IT APPEARS. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO
SWEEP MOST VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD.

$$

04

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
955 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF FRANCESS OLD CIRCULATION CENTER. BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
ALREADY EXISTING ELONGATED SOUTH TO NORTH BANDS THAT ARE ROTATING
ABOUT THE CIRCULATION CENTER. EXISTING FLOOD WATCH IS OVERDONE IN
COVERAGE BUT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ECHOS IN PASSING BANDS. TRAINING ECHOS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING FLOODING IN SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO OTHER SMALLER BANDS DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM IN SOUTH CAROLINA AND WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
TIER OF FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE IMPRESSIVE POINTING TO THE LIKELY OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE STRINGER BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. FINALLY THE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CALL FOR INCREASING DAYTIME HIGHS BY 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT FORECAST. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO TECHNICAL PROBLEMS
WITH THE SERVER WE CAN NOT UPDATE OUR GRIDS. TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE
UPDATED.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 145 AM WED SEP 8 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
REMNANTS FROM FRANCES WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION CROSSING CENTRAL NC THROUGH MIDDAY.
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE SYSTEM. EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IS LIKELY
IN THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE RAH CWA.  CATEGORICAL POPS AND MAX
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 76 TO 82 WILL BE CONTINUED FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT AND THU...AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FURTHER NORTH OF
THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT.  BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ON
THU.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S WITH SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH ON THU LOOK REASONABLE.

FRIDAY...A DAMPENING TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGESTS ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH HEATING ON FRIDAY.  CURRENT 20-30 PERCENT POPS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WILL BE CONTINUED.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SAT-TUE...FORECASTS WILL BE KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH VIS LOWERING TO 2 NM AND CIGS TO
AROUND 500 FT. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP WITH MVFR VIS
AND IFR CIGS. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES...BUT TAFS WILL
HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KTS. AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE
LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR SOUTH WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR AND PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MORE
SCATTERED. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...RFG
AVIATION...DGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
558 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-091000-ALAMANCE
NC-ANSON NC-CHATHAM NC-CUMBERLAND NC-DAVIDSON NC-DURHAM NC-EDGECOMBE
NC-FORSYTH NC-FRANKLIN NC-GRANVILLE NC-GUILFORD NC-HALIFAX
NC-HARNETT NC-HOKE NC-JOHNSTON NC-LEE NC-MONTGOMERY NC-MOORE NC-NASH
NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-RANDOLPH NC-RICHMOND NC-SAMPSON NC-SCOTLAND
NC-STANLY NC-VANCE NC-WAKE NC-WARREN NC-WAYNE NC-WILSON NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBEMARLE...ASHEBORO...BURLINGTON...
CHAPEL HILL...CLINTON...DURHAM...FAYETTEVILLE...GOLDSBORO...
GREENSBORO...HENDERSON...LAURINBURG...LEXINGTON...LILLINGTON...
LOUISBURG...MOUNT OLIVE...NASHVILLE...OXFORD...PITTSBORO...RAEFORD...
RALEIGH...ROANOKE RAPIDS...ROCKINGHAM...ROCKY MOUNT...ROXBORO...
SANFORD...SMITHFIELD...SOUTHERN PINES...TARBORO...TROY...WADESBORO...
WARRENTON...WILSON AND WINSTON-SALEM
558 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...

REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE FRANCES WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IN
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING OR
WIND DAMAGE FROM ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD BE RELAYED QUICKLY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND LOCAL STORM SPOTTER GROUPS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

RFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
534 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

NCZ024-025-040>042-076-077-088-089-081030-
CHATHAM NC-CUMBERLAND NC-DURHAM NC-HARNETT NC-JOHNSTON NC-LEE
NC-ORANGE NC-SAMPSON NC-WAKE NC-
534 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

...A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
DURHAM...WAKE...CHATHAM...WESTERN JOHNSTON...HARNETT...SAMPSON AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 630 AM EDT...

AT 534 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM FROM CHAPEL HILL SOUTH TO
FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN INCLUDE LILLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...
FAYETTEVILLE...CARY...APEX...RALEIGH AND FUQUAY VARINA.

RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THESE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING ON THE
ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED.

JO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
630 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

NCZ010-011-027-028-081130-
EDGECOMBE NC-HALIFAX NC-NASH NC-WARREN NC-
630 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

...A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN WARREN...HALIFAX...AND NORTHERN EDGECOMBE COUNTIES
THROUGH 730 AM EDT...

AT 630 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF SHOWERS SHOWERS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FROM WARRENTON TO TARBORO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...HALIFAX...
SCOTLAND NECK...GLENVIEW...WISE...RED HILL...AIRLIE...
PASCHALL...BEAVERDAM.

GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH DURING THE NEXT
HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH
CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS CAN
BE EXPECTED.

JO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
843 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

NCZ021>023-038>040-073>075-083>085-081430-
ALAMANCE NC-ANSON NC-CHATHAM NC-DAVIDSON NC-FORSYTH NC-GUILFORD NC-
MONTGOMERY NC-MOORE NC-RANDOLPH NC-RICHMOND NC-SCOTLAND NC-STANLY NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBEMARLE...ASHEBORO...BURLINGTON...
GREENSBORO...LAURINBURG...LEXINGTON...PITTSBORO...ROCKINGHAM...
SOUTHERN PINES...TROY...WADESBORO AND WINSTON-SALEM
843 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

...HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING...

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THOUGH 230 AM. THE
HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN WILL PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN LESS
THAN AN HOUR. DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND...THIS WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF
INTO CREEKS AND STREAMS RESULTING IN RAPID RISES IN THE WATER LEVEL.

IN ADDITION A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM. THE WIND PROFILE
NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR  ROTATION IN THE STRONGER CELLS WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TORNADOES. PEOPLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
NEED TO BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THEIR
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
921 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-081530-
ALAMANCE NC-ANSON NC-CHATHAM NC-CUMBERLAND NC-DAVIDSON NC-DURHAM NC-
EDGECOMBE NC-FORSYTH NC-FRANKLIN NC-GRANVILLE NC-GUILFORD NC-
HALIFAX NC-HARNETT NC-HOKE NC-JOHNSTON NC-LEE NC-MONTGOMERY NC-
MOORE NC-NASH NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-RANDOLPH NC-RICHMOND NC-
SAMPSON NC-SCOTLAND NC-STANLY NC-VANCE NC-WAKE NC-WARREN NC-WAYNE NC-
WILSON NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBEMARLE...ASHEBORO...BURLINGTON...
CHAPEL HILL...CLINTON...DURHAM...FAYETTEVILLE...GOLDSBORO...
GREENSBORO...HENDERSON...LAURINBURG...LEXINGTON...LILLINGTON...
LOUISBURG...MOUNT OLIVE...NASHVILLE...OXFORD...PITTSBORO...RAEFORD...
RALEIGH...ROANOKE RAPIDS...ROCKINGHAM...ROCKY MOUNT...ROXBORO...
SANFORD...SMITHFIELD...SOUTHERN PINES...TARBORO...TROY...WADESBORO...
WARRENTON...WILSON AND WINSTON-SALEM
921 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

...INCREASING TORNADO THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

AS THE AIRMASS HEATS UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON... THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. THE WINDS
NEAR SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGEST THAT
THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SHORT LIVED TORNADOES
IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. PEOPLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEED TO
PAY ATTENTION TO THEIR LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN TO A
RELIABLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION. BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION
TO HEAD FOR SHELTER IF THE WEATHER TURNS THREATENING OR IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1016 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

NCZ039-074-075-081515-

MONTGOMERY NC-MOORE NC-RANDOLPH NC-
1016 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS RANDOLPH...MOORE AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 AM EDT...

AT 1016 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PEKIN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TROY...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BISCOE...STEEDS...
SEAGROVE...MICHFIELD...NORTH CAROLINA ZOO...COLERIDGE.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SATURATED SOIL COUPLED WITH THE STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY CAUSE A
FEW TREES TO BE DOWNED.

WSS