Tornado Warning 26, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
REMNANTS FROM FRANCES WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE RIGHT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION CROSSING CENTRAL NC THROUGH MIDDAY.
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN BANDS AND TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE SYSTEM. EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IS LIKELY
IN THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE RAH CWA.  CATEGORICAL POPS AND MAX
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 76 TO 82 WILL BE CONTINUED FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT AND THU...AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FURTHER NORTH OF
THE AREA...RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT.  BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP A LINGERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE ON
THU.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S WITH SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH ON THU LOOK REASONABLE.

FRIDAY...A DAMPENING TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGESTS ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR TSTMS WITH HEATING ON FRIDAY.  CURRENT 20-30 PERCENT POPS
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WILL BE CONTINUED.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SAT-TUE...FORECASTS WILL BE KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WITH VIS LOWERING TO 2 NM AND CIGS TO
AROUND 500 FT. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP WITH MVFR VIS
AND IFR CIGS. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES...BUT TAFS WILL
HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KTS. AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE
LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS
OUR SOUTH WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR AND PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MORE
SCATTERED. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...RFG
AVIATION...DGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-080847-
ALAMANCE NC-ANSON NC-CHATHAM NC-CUMBERLAND NC-DAVIDSON NC-DURHAM NC-
EDGECOMBE NC-FORSYTH NC-FRANKLIN NC-GRANVILLE NC-GUILFORD NC-
HALIFAX NC-HARNETT NC-HOKE NC-JOHNSTON NC-LEE NC-MONTGOMERY NC-
MOORE NC-NASH NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-RANDOLPH NC-RICHMOND NC-
SAMPSON NC-SCOTLAND NC-STANLY NC-VANCE NC-WAKE NC-WARREN NC-WAYNE NC-
WILSON NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBEMARLE...ASHEBORO...BURLINGTON...
CHAPEL HILL...CLINTON...DURHAM...FAYETTEVILLE...GOLDSBORO...
GREENSBORO...HENDERSON...LAURINBURG...LEXINGTON...LILLINGTON...
LOUISBURG...MOUNT OLIVE...NASHVILLE...OXFORD...PITTSBORO...RAEFORD...
RALEIGH...ROANOKE RAPIDS...ROCKINGHAM...ROCKY MOUNT...ROXBORO...
SANFORD...SMITHFIELD...SOUTHERN PINES...TARBORO...TROY...WADESBORO...
WARRENTON...WILSON AND WINSTON-SALEM
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE FRANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE TO
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AHEAD AND EAST
OF THE SYSTEM...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...BEGINNING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUING TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 1.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT ISOLATED STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING AS FEEDER BANDS
ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF FRANCES
MAINLY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...ALONG SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM WADESBORO...LAURINBURG...HOPE MILLS TO CLINTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WEDNESDAY...
THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE FRANCES. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS WHICH INCLUDES THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS MUCH OF
THE DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR LOCALLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND REPORTS OF
FLOODING.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND LOCAL STORM SPOTTER GROUPS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

RA