Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
240 PM MDT SAT AUG 7 2004

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

A LOBE OF PV IS SHOWN IN THE MODELS WORKING ITS WAY ACRS CO TODAY
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING ACRS
WRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH THIS FEATURE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVR THE MTS TODAY AND ARE
SPREADING ONTO THE ERN PLAINS. WL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ALL THE SE PLAINS TO SCT FOR THIS EVENING.  THE BEST UPR
LIFT APPEARS TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE STILL FAIRLY HIGH OVR ERN AREAS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER I
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING HAIL OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH OR WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WL END MOST
PCPN AT MIDNIGHT BUT WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE FAR SE PLAINS
UNTIL 9Z.

SUN A SHRTWV TROF TO THE NORTH WL MOVE FROM NE MT INTO NORTH
CENTRAL ND BY MIDDAY...AND WL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO SE CO.  AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT TO THE PALMER DVD AREA
ABOUT MID MORNING AND THRU THE REST OF THE SE PLAINS BY ABOUT
NOON. SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS NOT EXPECTED FOR SUN WITH THIS FRONT.
MODELS SHOW ALMOST NO PCPN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUN BUT I AM
FINDING THAT DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE.  WRN AREAS DO LOOK DRIER...BUT
THERE WL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL MSTR IN THE E ALONG WITH SOME LOW
LVL UPSLOPE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVR THE SE PLAINS SUN ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE FROM ABOUT 3/4 INCH TO AROUND 1 INCH.  LAPSE
RATES OVR THE SE PLAINS ARE STEEP SUN AND CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500
J/KG ARE FORECAST OVR THE FAR SE.  WL LEAVE 10 AND 20 POPS ACRS
THE AREA WHICH WL ALSO MATCH WELL WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S. WL KEEP MAX
TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

KEPT LATE EVENING POPS ALONG SOUTHERN MTNS AND EASTERN PLAINS AS
FIRST FROPA LAYS ACROSS THIS AREA. INTO MONDAY...S/W TROF PROGRESSES
ACROSS NORTHERN STATES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NOSE OF TRAILING
HIGH CONTINUING TO SKIRT THE AREA. SE FLOW RETURNS TO SURFACE ON
EASTERN PLAINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...STILL EXPECT TEMPS IN THE
80S WITH CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS.

BEST FROPA REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATE TUESDAY...AS COLDFRONT MAKES
SURGE SOUTHWARD AS SECONDARY VORT ROTATES THROUGH BACK OF THE TROF.
LOOKS TO BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...KEPT ISOLD
COVERAGE BUT UPPED PLAINS AND EAST MTNS TO SCATTERED FOR EVENING.
UPPED TEMPS NEAR MTNS AND KEPT COOLER TEMPS FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS
NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN MIX OUT TO WARMER TEMPS BEFORE
FROPA. COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVERNIGHT...ADDED ISOLD POPS EAST MTNS AND
PLAINS. PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BECOME STABLE VERSUS CONVECTIVE...
HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT THUNDER YET AND WILL LEAVE AS SUCH.

NOT A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE DEPICTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...
HOWEVER THINK UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH S/W MOVING OVER AIRMASS
ALOFT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN 70S MOST PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.  TEMPS SLOW TO WARM FOR THURSDAY...AND
COOLED GRIDS A BIT. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO PLAINS AND BRINGS A GRADUAL WARMUP FOR FRI AND SAT. 588DM
HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO ONCE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES OUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMALS. KC

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
700 AM MDT SAT AUG 7 2004

COZ058>089-093>099-081500-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7500 FT-CROWLEY COUNTY-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN 7500
AND 11000 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
700 AM MDT SAT AUG 7 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTING...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH.  HOWEVER...AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ONTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE MORE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES...ONE OR TWO STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS...WHICH COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR
SENSITIVE AREAS PRONE TO RUNOFF PROBLEMS...SUCH AS THE BURN SCARS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FASTER...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MAY
HELP REDUCE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KT/WFF