Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
215 PM MDT FRI AUG 6 2004

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)

PCPN CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.  WITH THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHRTWV TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO DEVELOP AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD.  HOWEVER THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT
OF MSTR OVR THE AREA AND WITH THE HEATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVR THE MTS AND SPREAD OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE LOW LVL FLOW ADJACENT TO THE SE MTS IS NOT ALL THAT
STRONG AND UPSLOPE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY.  ALL THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE
THAT THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT AS BAD AS IT WAS ON
THU. HOWEVER WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FALL OVR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS
OVR WRN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...EL PASO COUNTY...AND THE HAYMAN BURN
SCAR...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THESE AREAS CAREFULLY FOR FLASH FLOODING IF
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER A
SHRTWV THAT IS CURRENTLY OVR AZ AND WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD...
COULD COULD SOME LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY OVR THE SW MTS...SO WL ADD IN
SOME ISOLD POPS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY THE UPR RIDGE WL BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING
WESTWARD.  AS THIS HAPPENS WE START TO GET SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVR THE
AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES FALLING FROM ABOUT .75 TO
1.4 INCHES THIS EVENING...TO .5-1.0 SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SAT A
STRONG SHRTWV WL BE MOVING ACRS NRN MT...WITH POSSIBLY A WEAKER
SHRTWV OVR NM.  EVEN WITH LESS MSTR OVR THE AREA SAT...ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MSTR WL BE AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  WL KEEP SCT
POPS OVR THE HYR TERRAIN AND ISOLD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  WL
ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SOME MAX TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST AS RIDGE POPS UP SOME OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN U.S. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED POPS IN SATURDAY
EVENING...AND LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  FRONT
SCHEDULED TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH A LITTLE
COOLER AIR BEHIND IT.  WILL LIKELY ONLY AFFECT THE PLAINS.  SOME CAPE
AVAILABLE OVER THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY
SEE MT CONVECTION AS WELL.  RESULT IS A CONTINUING OF THE 20 POPS FOR
THE CWFA THROUGH THE EVENING.

MONDAY...MODELS HAVE COOLER AIR PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...
WITH MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN THE 8 TO 10 C RANGE...SO LOWERED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER...AND PUT SCATTERED POPS IN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE PLAINS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE BAROCLINIC IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...SO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PICKS UP.  HAVE
ISOLATED POPS IN BOTH DAYS FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA...AND THREATS WILL BE
MORE HAIL AND WINDS THAN FLOODING...WITH DEVELOPING
CONVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD COLORADO
AGAIN FROM THE WEST...BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE...KEPT ISOLATED POPS
FOR AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ALL AREAS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
SOME FROM COOL READINGS OF EARLY WEEK...AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
BUMP UP TO 9C TO 13C OVER THE AREA. -TLM-

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
700 AM MDT FRI AUG 6 2004

COZ058>089-093>099-071400-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7500 FT-CROWLEY COUNTY-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN 7500
AND 11000 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
700 AM MDT FRI AUG 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON...THEN MOVE OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS
AFTER 200 PM.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1
INCH IN DIAMETER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD CAUSE RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN RUNOFF SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS SUCH AS
THE BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS...OR IN AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO LOWER THE FLASH
FLOOD RISK TODAY...KEEPING HEAVY RAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO JUST
ABOUT EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FASTER...NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MAY
HELP REDUCE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL BUT WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&