Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Phoenix, AZ

July 27, 2004Pinal County, Arizona

NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 27, 2004, 6:37 PM MST for Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 53 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 27, 2004, 6:37 PM MST (01:37 UTC)
Expired
Jul 27, 2004, 7:30 PM MST
In force
53 min
Issued by
NWS Phoenix, AZ
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Pinal County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 44 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2004-07-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 516 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2004-07-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 1 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
516 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-70 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2659 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
1 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
14 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KPSR 280137
SVRPSR
AZC021-280230-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
637 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MARICOPA

* UNTIL 730 PM MST

* AT 630 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARICOPA...OR
  ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUN LAKES...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LA
  PALMA...RANDOLPH...MAGMA...BAPCHULE AND OLBERG.

LAT...LON 3319 11210 3285 11207 3284 11144 3320 11143

$$

MB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 27, 3:40 PM MST, 2 hours 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 3:40 PM MST, 2 hours 57 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-280545-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
340 PM TUE JUL 27 2004

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA THIS EVENING WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF
ARIZONA...ALLOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO ENTER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
ENDING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AT THAT TIME...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DEVELOP BACK TO OUR EAST AND THIS WILL
GIVE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE...ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS FORMED AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SO FAR...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO OUR N...ALTHOUGH SOME
STRONG-LOOKING STORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER ZONE 24. JET STREAK
THAT IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL SPEED
PAST THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THUS...MAIN THREAT WILL END BY
THEN. SPC ISSUED SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 670 EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
FOR BASICALLY PHX AREA EWD...ALSO INCLUDING FAR NCTNRL MARICOPA
COUNTY. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH CONVECTION OVER
YAVAPAI COUNTY NEXT FEW HOURS...AS STEERING FLOWS AND RIGHT-TURNING
TENDENCIES OF THESE STORMS WOULD EVENTUALLY CAUSE STORM PROPAGATION
TOWARDS THE PHX AREA. AFTER TONIGHT...ADVERTIZED DRYING TREND WILL
PRETTY MUCH PUT AN END TO OUR CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR A FEW DAYS...
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY EXTREME ERN GILA COUNTY TOMORROW. GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
OF COURSE...ANY MCS SONORAN DEVELOPMENT AND RELATED SURGES WOULD
ACCELERATE THIS RE-MOISTENING. TOUGH TO CALL FOR THIS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THICKNESSES OFFSETTING THE WARMING EFFICIENCY OF A DRIER AMS.
TEMPS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE LOWER DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS.

IOP FOR INCREASED RAOBS FOR NAME PROJECT...MONSOON SUPPRESSION 0000
GMT WEDNESDAY THROUGH 0000 GMT FRIDAY.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

ESTLE
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 27, 10:40 AM MST, 7 hours 57 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1040 AM MST TUE JUL 27 2004

AZZ022-023-027-028-280700-
GREATER PHOENIX AREA-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-
1040 AM MST TUE JUL 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA EXCLUDING
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...
WITH TREES...POWER LINES...AND POORLY CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS BEING
MOST AT RISK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AZZ024-280700-
SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS-
1040 AM MST TUE JUL 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA HIGHER
TERRAIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING
AREAS. WASHES MAY BEGIN FLOWING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AFTER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THE AREA WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ030>033-280700-
IMPERIAL COUNTY-JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-
1040 AM MST TUE JUL 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ESTLE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 27, 5:17 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRGila58 min
Jul 27, 5:20 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPSRMaricopa55 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.