Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Phoenix, AZ
NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 27, 2004, 5:20 PM MST for Maricopa County, Arizona. It was in force for 55 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 27, 2004, 5:20 PM MST (00:20 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 27, 2004, 6:15 PM MST
- In force
- 55 min
- Issued by
- NWS Phoenix, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Maricopa County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 46 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 516 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -70 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2659 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 1 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 14 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WUUS55 KPSR 280020
SVRPSR
AZC013-280115-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
519 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MARICOPA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WITTMANN...WICKENBURG...SUN CITY
WEST...SCOTTSDALE...PEORIA...NEW RIVER...FOUNTAIN HILLS...CIRCLE
CITY
* UNTIL 615 PM MST
* AT 511 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SUNFLOWER TO WICKENBURG...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROOSEVELT TO WICKENBURG...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RIO
VERDE...CAMP CREEK...MORRISTOWN...CAVE CREEK...CAREFREE AND
BEARDSLEY.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
LAT...LON 3369 11256 3401 11290 3401 11273 3390 11228
3405 11214 3400 11177 3401 11144 3393 11145
3384 11137 3377 11138 3362 11123 3368 11115
3349 11105
$$
MBWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 27, 3:40 PM MST, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 3:40 PM MST, 1 hour 40 minutes before
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-280545- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 340 PM TUE JUL 27 2004 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH ARIZONA THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA...ALLOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO ENTER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ENDING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE WEEKEND. AT THAT TIME... THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DEVELOP BACK TO OUR EAST AND THIS WILL GIVE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. && .DISCUSSION... SEVERE...ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS FORMED AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN TO OUR N...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG-LOOKING STORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER ZONE 24. JET STREAK THAT IS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL SPEED PAST THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THUS...MAIN THREAT WILL END BY THEN. SPC ISSUED SVR TSTM WATCH NUMBER 670 EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOR BASICALLY PHX AREA EWD...ALSO INCLUDING FAR NCTNRL MARICOPA COUNTY. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH CONVECTION OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY NEXT FEW HOURS...AS STEERING FLOWS AND RIGHT-TURNING TENDENCIES OF THESE STORMS WOULD EVENTUALLY CAUSE STORM PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE PHX AREA. AFTER TONIGHT...ADVERTIZED DRYING TREND WILL PRETTY MUCH PUT AN END TO OUR CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR A FEW DAYS... EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY EXTREME ERN GILA COUNTY TOMORROW. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...ANY MCS SONORAN DEVELOPMENT AND RELATED SURGES WOULD ACCELERATE THIS RE-MOISTENING. TOUGH TO CALL FOR THIS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THICKNESSES OFFSETTING THE WARMING EFFICIENCY OF A DRIER AMS. TEMPS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE LOWER DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. IOP FOR INCREASED RAOBS FOR NAME PROJECT...MONSOON SUPPRESSION 0000 GMT WEDNESDAY THROUGH 0000 GMT FRIDAY. .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && ESTLE
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 27, 10:40 AM MST, 6 hours 40 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 1040 AM MST TUE JUL 27 2004 AZZ022-023-027-028-280700- GREATER PHOENIX AREA-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY- NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY- 1040 AM MST TUE JUL 27 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA EXCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. .DAY ONE...TODAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT... WITH TREES...POWER LINES...AND POORLY CONSTRUCTED BUILDINGS BEING MOST AT RISK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AZZ024-280700- SOUTHERN GILA/TONTO NF FOOTHILLS- 1040 AM MST TUE JUL 27 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN. .DAY ONE...TODAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. WASHES MAY BEGIN FLOWING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE AREA WILL UNDERGO A DRYING TREND WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AZZ020-021-025-026-CAZ030>033-280700- IMPERIAL COUNTY-JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK- LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA- RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-SOUTHWEST DESERTS- WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY- 1040 AM MST TUE JUL 27 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ESTLE
The office that day
Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 5:17 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Gila | 58 min |
| Jul 27, 6:37 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Pinal | 53 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2004Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.