Severe Thunderstorm Warning 218, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
305 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

.SHORT TERM...

MCS HAS CLEARED THE CWFA...AND HAS ESSENTIALLY WORKED OVER THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION...PERHAPS IS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES EVIDENT ON
BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR OVER SOUTHEAST MO...WITH CU FIELD SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARIES AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF CONVERGENCE. IT IS IN THIS
AREA THAT WE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR CONVECTION EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...AS A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHIFTS EAST FROM EASTERN NEB TO EASTERN IOWA...CHANCE
POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA...MAINLY SRN
IL / SW IN. IT IS THERE WHERE BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SHOW SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. WILL SHIFT THE POPS NORTH TONIGHT IN THE
GRIDS AS A RESULT.

WEATHER LOOKS UNSETTLED AGAIN TUESDAY. IT REALLY DEPENDS ON WHICH
MODEL YOU BELIEVE. ETA IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND EARLIER WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THAN THE GFS. WILL INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST ON TUESDAY...AND CONTINUE WITH THAT CHANCE...UNTIL THE FRONT
COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSISTENCY LACKING FOR SURE WITH
WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. YESTERDAY...GFS REALLY SPED UP FRONTAL MOVEMENT
AND DEPARTURE OF PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST RUN HAS SLOWED BACK
DOWN...LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE
PREVIOUSLY SLOWER ETA IS NOW THE QUICKER MODEL. SO WE FEEL OUR BEST
BET IS TO STAY THE COURSE...AND GO WITH POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN END PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...ETA 2M TEMPS
SEEM A LITTLE HIGH. WE SIDED MORE WITH THE FWC/MAV NUMBERS FROM THE
NUMERICAL OUTPUT IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...

FOR THE DAY 4 THROUGH 7 PERIOD OF FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE LONG
RANGE MODELS BUILD HEIGHTS OVER THE SE QUADRANT OF THE CONUS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. DESPITE THE
BUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE...MODELS NEVER REALLY CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. AND...THEY KEEP A MODEST LEVEL OF MEAN RH ACROSS THE
FA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS. SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION. GFS TRIES TO DRIVE A FRONT
THROUGH DAY 7 (MONDAY). AM A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS OF THIS. THE MODEL
CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS DAY 7.
WILL HEDGE AWAY FROM THE GFS NOTION OF PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH SO
AGGRESSIVELY MONDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...FOLLOWED HPC AND MEX
GUIDANCE CLOSELY. THEY LINE UP WELL WITH OUR GOING FORECAST.
BASICALLY TYPICAL VALUES FOR MID JULY. VERY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

CN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
349 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-061000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...EVANSVILLE...HERRIN...
HARRISBURG...CARMI...CARBONDALE AND CAIRO
349 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREATS FROM SEVERE
STORMS...IF THEY OCCUR...WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM SEVERE STORMS...IF THEY
OCCUR...WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS
REQUESTED EARLY THIS WEEK.

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