Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...

06Z META PEGS UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KC MO AND DIVES IT ESE ACROSS
PAH FA THIS AM. RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWS SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER
CNTL MO...OUT AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED AREA...AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DATA
REVEALS THETA-E RIDGE LAYING IN WAIT OVERTOP PAH FA. HAVE THEREFORE
ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH AN ADVECTIVE AM AND DIURNALLY
ENHANCED PM POP...BUT CHOSE NOT TO BE OVERLY DETAILED BY PASTING A
SLIGHT CHANCE EVERYWHERE.

AFTER THAT ITS A LULL...W/PCPN CHANCES DEPARTING NERN PTNS FA LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TOMORROW...THEN RETURNING...NW TO SE...TUE PM AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PEAK IN
POPS TUE NIGHT W/FROPA OCCURRING BY MIDDAY WED. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY PUSHING THE FRONT THRU...AND W/ETA AND GFS NOW STARTING
TO COME A LTL MORE IN LINE...HAVE PRETTY MUCH BOUGHT INTO FROPA OVER
ALL OF FA SAVE FAR SE BY 18Z WED...DEPARTING SERN MOST PTNS BY END
OF DAY WED.

AFTER THAT THE FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED W/THE MED TO LONG RANGE
GFS/MRF VERY CONSISTENT W/ITS PREVIOUS COUPLE RUNS. HAVE THEREFORE
ONLY TWEEKED SLIGHTLY PER LATEST DATA.

CONTINUE TO FAVOR A META/ETA NEAR TERM SOLUTION...BUT GFS IS VERY
CLOSE...AS IS MOST MOS NOS. THEREFORE TEMP FORECAST REFLECTS BIAS
TOWARD ETA MOS EARLY...BLENDING INTO GFS BIASED NOS BY MID TO LONG
RANGE...WHICH HAS BEEN OUR PERSISTENCE STRATEGY FOR ABOUT A WEEK
NOW. NEWEST DATA SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF HEADLINING HIS AROUND 100
THIS PM.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
349 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-061000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...EVANSVILLE...HERRIN...
HARRISBURG...CARMI...CARBONDALE AND CAIRO
349 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREATS FROM SEVERE
STORMS...IF THEY OCCUR...WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM SEVERE STORMS...IF THEY
OCCUR...WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS
REQUESTED EARLY THIS WEEK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT ... CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
125 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
07/05/2004                   VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AT UNIVERSITY OF EVANSVILLE AND
            MEMORIAL HIGH SCHOOL.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OWENSBORO               37.76N 87.12W
07/05/2004                   DAVIESS            KY   PUBLIC

            SHINGLES TORN OFF OF HOME NEAR INTERSECTION OF TARAMAC
            AND IMPERIAL.

&&

SMITTY

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