Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
231 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE ON AND OFF CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

MCS PLOWING SE ACROSS MISSOURI TOWARD OUR CWA. SHALLOW STABLE LAYER
AT THE SURFACE GIVING SFC BASED LIFTED INDICES IN THE +1 TO +4
CATEGORY...BUT SHOWALTER INDICES STILL YIELDING 0 TO -2.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN A BIT BEFORE ENTERING
OUR CWA BUT CONTINUE ACROSS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SEE A BIT OF
A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MIXING AND HEATING WE GET...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
BRINGING AN H5 SHORT WAVE NE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ASSOC
VORT MAX TODAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING. DURING THE
NIGHT TONIGHT THE WAVE AND VORT MAX MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. PREFER THE
ETA/MESOETA SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO QPF FOR TONIGHT...BUT
JUST IN CASE...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP. WITH A COUPLE OF RIPPLES OF
ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL KEEP CHC POPS.  MONDAY
NIGHT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS (RIPPLES OF ENERGY
AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH). ON TUESDAY SOME OF THE ENERGY...MOISTURE...ETC
FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH...SO
KEPT IN LOW CHC POPS. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES BEYOND TUESDAY (5TH
PERIOD).

MADE A FEW TEMPERATURE TWEAKS HERE AND THERE...OTHERWISE THEY LOOKED
GOOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
754 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-141000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...EVANSVILLE...HERRIN...
HARRISBURG...CARMI...CARBONDALE AND CAIRO
754 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE GENERALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM FAIRFIELD ILLINOIS TO PERRYVILLE MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH LARGE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD ALSO BE A THREAT AS STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
TIME OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EVERY DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH OUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

JAP

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