Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
231 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MAIN CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE ON AND OFF CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

MCS PLOWING SE ACROSS MISSOURI TOWARD OUR CWA. SHALLOW STABLE LAYER
AT THE SURFACE GIVING SFC BASED LIFTED INDICES IN THE +1 TO +4
CATEGORY...BUT SHOWALTER INDICES STILL YIELDING 0 TO -2.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN A BIT BEFORE ENTERING
OUR CWA BUT CONTINUE ACROSS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SEE A BIT OF
A BREAK IN THE ACTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MIXING AND HEATING WE GET...EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND TO GET GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
BRINGING AN H5 SHORT WAVE NE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH ASSOC
VORT MAX TODAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING. DURING THE
NIGHT TONIGHT THE WAVE AND VORT MAX MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. PREFER THE
ETA/MESOETA SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO QPF FOR TONIGHT...BUT
JUST IN CASE...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC POP. WITH A COUPLE OF RIPPLES OF
ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WILL KEEP CHC POPS.  MONDAY
NIGHT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS (RIPPLES OF ENERGY
AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH). ON TUESDAY SOME OF THE ENERGY...MOISTURE...ETC
FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH...SO
KEPT IN LOW CHC POPS. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES BEYOND TUESDAY (5TH
PERIOD).

MADE A FEW TEMPERATURE TWEAKS HERE AND THERE...OTHERWISE THEY LOOKED
GOOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

JAP

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