Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2004

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Paducah, KY

May 28, 2004Carlisle County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 28, 2004, 1:53 AM CDT for Carlisle County, Kentucky. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 28, 2004, 1:53 AM CDT (06:53 UTC)
Expired: May 28, 2004, 2:30 AM CDT
In force: 37 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Carlisle County, KY

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 227 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1103 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -34 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1111 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 174 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 271 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.4
Supercell composite: 6.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 27, 4:14 PM CDT, 9 hours 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 27, 4:14 PM CDT, 9 hours 39 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
414 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...
RUNNING WAY BEHIND THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE BRIEF.  MAIN CONCERN
FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION...HEAVY RAIN...AND SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

NUMEROUS SEVERE THNUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE POSTED TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA...PUSHING THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL SOUTHEAST INTO THE QUAD STATE THIS EVENING.  STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI...A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION MAY HOLD OFF
PRECIPITATION THERE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE WHOLE GAMUT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...EVEN TORNADOS IF THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH SAGS INTO THE REGION.

THE ETA AND GFS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE ACTIVITY
WILL MAKE IT OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE DONE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...MORE LIKE THE 18Z ETA.  WILL END
PRECIPITATION BY 18Z FRIDAY.  THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WHICH HAS THE
SITUATION WELL IN HAND...HAS ALREADY BEEN FRESHENED UP...BUT NO
CHANGES NECESSARY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...WITH THE ACTIVE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERIODICALLY INDICATING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH RETURNING MOISTURE.  DECIDED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY BEFORE REINTRODUCING PRECIPITATION...AND THEN ONLY IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  WILL THEN SPREAD THE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE MOISTURE RECOVERS
OVER THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE.

A MAJOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THIS LONG RUN OF WET WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.  UNFORTUNATELY...THAT WILL MEAN A
CHANCE OF SIGINIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.  WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE
POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GET TO CARRIED AWAY AT THIS
TIME.  WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
MONDAY...BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEANS PER HPC GUIDANCE IN THE
EXTENDED.

AS FOR SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...GENERALLY
WENT WITH THE WARMER CHOICES FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6AM FRIDAY.
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6AM FRIDAY.
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6AM FRIDAY.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6AM FRIDAY.

&&

DRS

Hazardous weather outlook, May 28, 1:35 AM CDT, 18 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 27, 11:12 PM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 27, 11:24 PM CDT, 2 hours 29 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 27, 11:33 PM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 27, 11:38 PM CDT, 2 hours 15 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 27, 11:45 PM CDT, 2 hours 8 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 28, 12:40 AM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 27, 7:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Wayne	63 min
May 27, 8:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Jefferson	26 min
May 27, 8:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Jefferson, Perry	46 min
May 27, 8:30 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Edwards, Jefferson, Wabash, Wayne	3 hr
May 27, 8:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Edwards, Wabash	65 min
May 27, 9:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Hamilton	45 min
May 27, 9:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Jackson, Saline, Williamson	51 min
May 27, 9:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Union	56 min
May 27, 9:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Gallatin, White	52 min
May 27, 9:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Johnson, Pope	44 min
May 27, 10:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hardin	55 min
May 27, 10:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Daviess, McLean	62 min
May 27, 10:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hopkins, Webster	55 min
May 27, 11:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Muhlenberg	62 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2004 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.