Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Paducah, KY

000 
WGUS73 KPAH 010119
FFSPAH
INC147-KYC059-107-149-177-233-010215-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
817 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM FOR 
  SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA
  DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY
  MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY
  WEBSTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY
  HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY
  MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

AT 810 PM CDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO 
MODERATE RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA. AT 729 PM...6 TO 8 
INCHES OF WATER WAS REPORTED ON NUMEROUS SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY 431 
BETWEEN LIVERMORE AND THE DAVIESS COUNTY LINE. 

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 3 INCHES TO HAVE FALLEN DURING THE PAST 
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO MAY FALL BEFORE THE 
RAIN COMES TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF 
SOME ROADWAYS...AND MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY OVERFLOW THEIR 
BANKS.  

ABSOLUTELY DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER 
COVERS THE ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE 
ABANDONED. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MORNING RUC/ETA MODELS INDICATED DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTIVE OF THE CONTINUED
SLOW GROWTH OBSERVED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. MCD 514 FROM THE SPC
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS MCS. LIMITED SHEAR /500 MB WINDS AROUND 30
KTS/ AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TO JUST ISOLATED HAIL/WIND DMG. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS ALSO A
CONCERN. RECEIVED A REPORT OF .7 INCH IN 30 MINUTES FROM VAN BUREN
MISSOURI IN CARTER COUNTY AT 19Z. THE STEADY MOVEMENT OF THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD MINIMIZE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF EXCELLENT DRYING CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER ANOTHER MCS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A LINE FROM KSGF TO KUIN
/QUINCY IL/ AT 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ETA/GFS QPF FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS CRANKING OUT MUCH HEAVIER
PRECIP. THIS APPEARS DUE TO THE GFS SURFACE WAVE THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GFS IS TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW AND TOO
WET. OUR STORM TOTAL QPF FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENT WILL TOTAL 1
TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH HPC. ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SE MISSOURI
AND SW ILLINOIS WHERE ONGOING MCS IS SATURATING THE GROUND. IF
ANOTHER MCS BECOMES MORE CERTAIN LATE TONIGHT...A FLOOD WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY WET DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z...AND TO KHOP AREA BY
00Z. HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF PAH...WHERE SOME DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 500 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER /NEAR 50
KNOTS PER GFS MODEL/...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
APPEARS HIGHER ON SATURDAY.

THE POST FRONTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY SAT NIGHT...AND CLEARING WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS. HOWEVER...SUNDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OR TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS SUNDAY. THESE SUBTLE
SECONDARY TROUGHS ARE SELDOM SHOWN WELL BY THE MODELS. REGARDLESS OF
THE SURFACE PATTERN...A WELL DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH /SHOWN BY ETA/
WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE 700
MB TROUGH WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.
RELIED MAINLY ON ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...PER HPC
DISCUSSIONS. HOWEVER...THE MORNING GFS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN IF GFS SOLUTION
TURNS OUT CORRECT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT...COMBINED WITH A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...WOULD GREATLY LIMIT
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1151 AM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-011000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY OVER MOST OF THE QUAD STATE REGION...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR EVANSVILLE TO
PADUCAH.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS. IF THESE STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...THEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. INDICATIONS ARE THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
REGION TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS TONIGHT MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. IN
ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM DONIPHAN MISSOURI THROUGH CAPE GIRARDEAU...AND
EVANSVILLE INDIANA...TO PETERSBURG. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION...ANY
THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES
WITH REGARD TO THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. RELAY ANY REPORTS OF
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MEFFERT/SPODEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALEM                   38.63N 88.95W
04/30/2004                   MARION             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE NEAR SALEM. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...POWER
            POLES, POWERLINES, TELEPHONE POLES AND TREES DOWN BETWEEN
            SALEM AND GRAND RIVERS.

&&

NADOLSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALEM                   38.63N 88.95W
04/30/2004                   LIVINGSTON         KY  LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE NEAR SALEM. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...POWER
            POLES, POWERLINES, TELEPHONE POLES AND TREES DOWN BETWEEN
            SALEM AND GRAND RIVERS.

&&

NADOLSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
605 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     HAIL             WEST SALEM              38.52N 88.01W
04/30/2004  0.25 INCH        EDWARDS            IL   PUBLIC

&&

NADOLSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND GST     HENDERSON               37.84N 87.58W
04/30/2004  60 MPH           HENDERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MAJOR STRAIGHT LINE WIND IN NORTHERN HEDERSON COUNTY.

&&

NADOLSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
707 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W NEWBURGH            37.95N 87.46W
04/30/2004                   VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            UNDERPINNINGS OFF TRAILERS AND SHINGLES OFF ROOFS
            REPORTED IN THE ANGEL MOUNDS AREA OF SOUTHEAST
            VANDERGURGH COUNTY.

&&

NADOLSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
712 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             OWENSBORO               37.76N 87.12W
04/30/2004  0.75 INCH        DAVIESS            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED IN OWENSBORO NEAR HWY 231

0706 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E OWENSBORO           37.76N 87.10W
04/30/2004                   DAVIESS            KY   AIRPLANE PILOT

            TREE DOWN ON HWY 144.

&&

NADOLSKI