Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Paducah, KY

000 
WGUS73 KPAH 010745
FFSPAH
ILC193-INC051-125-129-163-173-011000-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
245 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 AM CDT FOR POSEY
   AND GIBSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR 
   WHITE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN VANDERBURGH...
   NORTHERN WARRICK...AND PIKE COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST 
   INDIANA...

AT 235 AM...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FLOODING OVER HIGHWAY 
165...NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 66 IN NORTHERN POSEY COUNTY. ALSO
REPORTED...WAS FLOODING ALONG INTERSTATE 64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
18 AND 25. WATER WAS REPORTEDLY AS DEEP AS 2 FEET IN SOME SPOTS.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO BE ORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL AND RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE ACTION. FLOODING IS DIFFICULT TO RECOGNIZE
AT NIGHT. IF YOU COME ACROSS A ROAD THAT IS WATER COVERED...DO NOT
TRY TO CROSS. IF RAPIDLY RISING WATER IS OBSERVED...MOVE QUICKLY
TO HIGHER GROUND. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MORNING RUC/ETA MODELS INDICATED DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTIVE OF THE CONTINUED
SLOW GROWTH OBSERVED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. MCD 514 FROM THE SPC
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS MCS. LIMITED SHEAR /500 MB WINDS AROUND 30
KTS/ AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TO JUST ISOLATED HAIL/WIND DMG. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS ALSO A
CONCERN. RECEIVED A REPORT OF .7 INCH IN 30 MINUTES FROM VAN BUREN
MISSOURI IN CARTER COUNTY AT 19Z. THE STEADY MOVEMENT OF THIS
COMPLEX SHOULD MINIMIZE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF EXCELLENT DRYING CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS WHETHER ANOTHER MCS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR A LINE FROM KSGF TO KUIN
/QUINCY IL/ AT 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ETA/GFS QPF FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS CRANKING OUT MUCH HEAVIER
PRECIP. THIS APPEARS DUE TO THE GFS SURFACE WAVE THAT MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GFS IS TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW AND TOO
WET. OUR STORM TOTAL QPF FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENT WILL TOTAL 1
TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH HPC. ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN SE MISSOURI
AND SW ILLINOIS WHERE ONGOING MCS IS SATURATING THE GROUND. IF
ANOTHER MCS BECOMES MORE CERTAIN LATE TONIGHT...A FLOOD WATCH WILL
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A VERY WET DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z...AND TO KHOP AREA BY
00Z. HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF PAH...WHERE SOME DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 500 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER /NEAR 50
KNOTS PER GFS MODEL/...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
APPEARS HIGHER ON SATURDAY.

THE POST FRONTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY SAT NIGHT...AND CLEARING WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS. HOWEVER...SUNDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OR TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS SUNDAY. THESE SUBTLE
SECONDARY TROUGHS ARE SELDOM SHOWN WELL BY THE MODELS. REGARDLESS OF
THE SURFACE PATTERN...A WELL DEFINED 700 MB TROUGH /SHOWN BY ETA/
WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE 700
MB TROUGH WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY WITH A WARMING TREND.
RELIED MAINLY ON ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...PER HPC
DISCUSSIONS. HOWEVER...THE MORNING GFS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN IF GFS SOLUTION
TURNS OUT CORRECT...LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT...COMBINED WITH A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...WOULD GREATLY LIMIT
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
956 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2004

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-011000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM DONIPHAN MISSOURI THROUGH CAPE GIRARDEAU...AND
EVANSVILLE INDIANA...TO PETERSBURG. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH
ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE HEAVY RAINS FRIDAY
EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN A LOW THRESHOLD FOR RECEIVING ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS.