Tornado Warning 12, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS SOLIDIFIED THIS MORNING AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM MEDFORD AND CHEROKEE TO JUST EAST OF
WEATHERFORD TO NEAR HOBART... FREDERICK AND INTO NORTHWEST WICHITA
COUNTY. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. POPS ARE BEING REDEFINED PER LATEST TRENDS.

TO THE WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY... ATTENTION TURNS TO THE DRYLINE
RACING EAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THE MIXING OF THE DRYLINE
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES OR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT LAYER OF MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL
RETARD HEATING FOR A WHILE. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON... SO DO EXPECT THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT AT LEAST ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTION IS TRYING TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
BUT IS CURRENTLY BEING SHEARED APART. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON.
BUT IF REDEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR... THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 500 MB TEMPERATURES LESS
THAN -20 C MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
GIVE HIGH LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING SEVERE WEATHER.

FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. MAIN CHANGES TO POPS AND
INCREASE HIGHS TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST.

...SPEG.
--------------------------
210 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT WESTERN OK
BY THIS AFTERNOON, HELPING TO DRIVE THE DRYLINE EAST. BY SUNSET,
SEVERAL SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF WESTERN OK NEAR THE
DRYLINE. HOWEVER, THE DOMINANT STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE A SQUALL
LINE DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST OK BY SUNDAY MORNING. POPS WERE
INCREASED TO LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST OK WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF INSOLATION, MOISTURE, AND DRYLINE CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE BEST INITIALLY. REFER TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE ETA IN MOVING OUT THE UPPER TROUGH.
STILL, THERE MAY BE SOME POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AROUND PART OF SUNDAY
BEFORE CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY MORNING HAVING THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN COMES FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.

FCSTID = 9

OKC  76 56 69 44 / 40 40 40 10
HBR  77 52 69 44 / 30 40 20 10
SPS  78 59 70 46 / 30 30 20 10
GAG  76 44 67 38 / 70 30 00 10
PNC  74 52 67 42 / 40 70 20 10
DUA  77 61 71 49 / 30 40 40 10

.OUN...
OK...NONE
TX...NONE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
120 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK
AREA WILL EXIST OUTSIDE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM ERICK AND SAYRE...TO GUTHRIE...TO CUSHING. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
COVERS THE REST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH INCLUDES VERY LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES...WILL BE FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN
SHIFTING TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THROUGH THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD ALONG BOTH FEATURES...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST SUNDAY MAR 28.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN... CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE DECREASING. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

...SPEG & 11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     HAIL             5 E BUTLER              35.64N 99.10W
03/27/2004  2.50 INCH        CUSTER             OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNW LEBANON           34.07N 96.95W
03/27/2004  60 MPH           MARSHALL           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED.

&&

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
326 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             11 WNW CLINTON          35.57N 99.15W
03/27/2004  1.75 INCH        CUSTER             OK   PUBLIC

0307 PM     HAIL             BRINKMAN                35.02N 99.52W
03/27/2004  0.75 INCH        GREER              OK   PUBLIC

&&

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     HAIL             WILLOW                  35.05N 99.51W
03/27/2004  1.00 INCH        GREER              OK   PUBLIC

&&

JLP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
333 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

OKZ006-272145-
ALFALFA OK-
333 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ALFALFA COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
WEST OF CARMEN AT 333 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN ALFALFA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A TORNADO WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED SOON.

...SPEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
339 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TORNADO          4 N CUSTER CITY         35.72N 98.89W
03/27/2004                   CUSTER             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN. TORNADO LASTED A FEW MINUTES.

&&

JLP