Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

MUST BE BRIEF...
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
TORNADO POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. SQUALL
LINE EVOLUTION EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISALLOBARIC TENDENCIES ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS NEAR AND AHEAD OF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY GOING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING HOURS.

PERIODIC WEAK FROPAS PROGD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME
RECOVERY EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD
MIDWEEK. COULD SEE RAINY PERIOD LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD AND LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES TO OUR SW.

FCSTID = 11

OKC  51 67 42 69 / 70 20 00 00
HBR  48 66 41 71 / 30 00 00 00
SPS  55 68 44 73 / 30 10 00 00
GAG  40 66 38 70 / 20 00 00 00
PNC  48 66 40 67 / 90 10 10 00
DUA  60 69 47 71 / 40 40 00 00

.OUN...
OK...WIND ADVISORY THRU EVENING ZONES
OKZ006-007-011-012-015>019-022>025-027>029-035>038-044.
TX...WIND ADVISORY THRU EVENING ZONES TXZ085-086-088>090.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
120 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK
AREA WILL EXIST OUTSIDE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE THAT EXTENDS
FROM ERICK AND SAYRE...TO GUTHRIE...TO CUSHING. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
COVERS THE REST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...WHICH INCLUDES VERY LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES...WILL BE FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN
SHIFTING TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THROUGH THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD ALONG BOTH FEATURES...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST SUNDAY MAR 28.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN... CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE DECREASING. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

...SPEG & 11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
407 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             BURNS FLAT              35.36N 99.18W
03/27/2004  1.00 INCH        WASHITA            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
417 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             5 NNW FAY               35.88N 98.69W
03/27/2004  0.88 INCH        DEWEY              OK   PUBLIC

            HAIL LASTED APPROXIMATELY 15 MINUTES.

&&

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
429 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             1 N EAGLE CITY          35.94N 98.58W
03/27/2004  1.00 INCH        BLAINE             OK   PUBLIC

&&

JLP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
439 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

OKZ005-010-272300-
WOODS OK-WOODWARD OK-
439 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WOODS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES.

A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS REACHING TO 18 MILES
NORTH OF FREEDOM AT 439 PM CST...BUILDING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND AFFECT A
LARGE PART OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 6 PM.

PEOPLE IN WOODS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
441 PM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             5 NNW FAY               35.88N 98.69W
03/27/2004  0.88 INCH        DEWEY              OK   PUBLIC

&&

JLP