Severe Thunderstorm Warning 618, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FFA CODING AT BOTTOM...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPON FURTHER REVIEW..AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS..WILL BE ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ASAP THRU NOON FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND NRN OK.
CODING TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.
---------------------------
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE MCS GENERATED COLD POOL JUST NOW ENTERING NW
OK..WITH WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NRN TWO-THIRD OF OK WITHIN WAA REGIME IN ADVANCE OF COLD POOL.  DEEP
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS NEAR COLD POOL EDGE APPEAR TO BE REORGANIZING
ATTM..AND STILL EXPECT A SVR WIND THREAT TO PRESIST THRU DAYBREAK
ALONG PATH OF MCS /ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT AS HIGH END AS WHAT WE SAW
AROUND MIDNITE ON N SIDE OF OK METRO AREA/.  CURRENTLY..APPEARS BEST
THREAT CORRIDOR WILL BE JUST ON COOL SIDE OF COMBINATION
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CLEARLY EVIDENT IN MESONET DATA ALONG A
WOODWARD/WATONGA/NORMAN LINE. MCS TO CONTINUE SWD THRU MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THRU 15-18Z..AND HEAVY RAINFALL A CONCERN..ESP WITH
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF COLD POOL WITHIN LARGE
WAA REGIME.  WITH LACK OF LARGE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER A WIDE
AREA..AND GOOD SE MOTION TO MCS..FEEL THAT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT WARRANTED.  WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE TO ISSUE A FEW FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS IN A COUPLE AREAS..BUT WIDESPREAD THREAT NOT
ANTICIPATED.

UPPER WAVE PASSING BY THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO
BUILD SWD TONITE AND THURSDAY..WHICH SHUD TEMPRARILY SHUT OFF PRECIP
CHANCES BEFORE WAA PATTERN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED RATHER QUICKLY
THURSDAY NITE AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE LATE NITE AND MORNING HOURS IN
CONTINUED NW FLOW PATTERN. HEIGHTS WILL BUILD A BIT SUN INTO
MON..WHICH SHUD RESULT IN A WARMING TREND..WITH PERHAPS LESS OF A
CHANCE OF RAIN.  GOING GRIDS AND FORECAST HAVE THIS PRETTY WELL
DEPICTED ATTM..AND MADE FEW CHANGES BEYOND FRIDAY.
 MILLER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  80  60  84  63 /  80  10  10  10
HOBART OK         80  59  85  63 /  70  10  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  61  86  63 /  80  10  10  30
GAGE OK           77  53  84  62 /  20  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     79  57  83  59 /  50  10  10  10
DURANT OK         83  63  85  63 /  80  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON OKZ006>008-011>013-015>020-022>032.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF STATE HIGHWAY 34 AND NORTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 33. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF I-35 IN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 10 PM THROUGH 7
AM WEDNESDAY.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NEAR A COLD FRONT THAT LIES FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS
HAVE ALSO BECOME A FOCUS FOR FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS MOVES SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD REACH
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

BECAUSE OF EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY MAINTAIN SEVERE STORMS
WITHIN THE STORM COMPLEX FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM 60 TO 80 MPH AND VERY LARGE
HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS ALSO LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...2 TO 3
INCHES IN MANY PLACES...WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY AUG 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7
AM WEDNESDAY.

RUFF/MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
317 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

OKZ009-010-014-015-110830-
DEWEY OK-ELLIS OK-ROGER MILLS OK-WOODWARD OK-
317 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR DEWEY...ELLIS...ROGER MILLS
AND WOODWARD COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM FORT SUPPLY TO 4
MILES SOUTH OF ANGORA AT 317 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. WINDS
OF 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THIS LINE.

PEOPLE IN DEWEY...ELLIS...ROGER MILLS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF WOODWARD...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
321 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

OKZ017-024-110830-
BLAINE OK-CANADIAN OK-
321 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR SOUTHERN BLAINE AND CANADIAN
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENFIELD AT
321 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN BLAINE AND NORTHWEST CANADIAN
COUNTIES.

PEOPLE IN BLAINE AND CANADIAN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
351 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

OKZ009>011-014>016-110900-
CUSTER OK-DEWEY OK-ELLIS OK-MAJOR OK-ROGER MILLS OK-WOODWARD OK-
351 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CUSTER...DEWEY...ELLIS...
MAJOR...ROGER MILLS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MOORELAND TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF PUTNAM AT 351 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.  WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

PEOPLE IN CUSTER...DEWEY...ELLIS...MAJOR...ROGER MILLS AND WOODWARD
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF WOODWARD...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
420 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

OKZ025-029-110930-
CLEVELAND OK-OKLAHOMA OK-
420 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLEVELAND AND OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA CITY AT 420
AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA-CLEVELAND COUNTY LINE.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CLEVELAND AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY...AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
452 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

OKZ022>024-027-034>036-038-111015-
CADDO OK-CANADIAN OK-COMANCHE OK-GRADY OK-GREER OK-JACKSON OK-KIOWA
OK-WASHITA OK-
452 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO...CANADIAN...
COMANCHE...GRADY...GREER...JACKSON...KIOWA AND WASHITA COUNTIES.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 3
MILES NORTHWEST OF COGAR TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOM STEED RESERVOIR
AT 452 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WHILE THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR AS THE STORMS PASS. WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH AS 50 MPH
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND THESE STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

PEOPLE IN
CADDO...CANADIAN...COMANCHE...GRADY...GREER...JACKSON...KIOWA AND
WASHITA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY...AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
520 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW BUTLER             35.58N 99.25W
08/11/2004  58 MPH           CUSTER             OK   MESONET

            MEASURED BY OKLAHOMA MESONET

0440 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW BUTLER             35.58N 99.25W
08/11/2004  60 MPH           CUSTER             OK   MESONET

            MEASURED BY OKLAHOMA MESONET.

0445 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW BUTLER             35.58N 99.25W
08/11/2004  59 MPH           CUSTER             OK   MESONET

            MEASURED BY OKLAHOMA MESONET.

&&

TY