Severe Thunderstorm Warning 616, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1007 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

STORMS CONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OK. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
OVR THE PAST HOUR NEAR THE FRONTAL BNDRY...OUTFLOW BNDRY
INTERSECTION. MEANWHILE...STORMS CONT TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO...KANSAS...AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND W N TX LATER
TONIGHT...WITH SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL UPDATE POPS TO SHOW CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. WILL ALSO UPDATE SKY CONDITIONS AND HOURLY GRIDS TO SHOW
CURRENT TRENDS. WILL SEND UPDATE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

MAXWELL

258 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN TODAY OVER SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE THERE HAS BEEN SOME WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE AREA THROUGH MID
EVENING... BUT MAIN SHOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WITH
BETTER SUPPORT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY... WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SPREADING SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE WORDING OF THE
PACKAGE... BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME SINCE
MOST AREAS HAVE NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR A WHILE AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO
FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SURFACE FRONT AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED EXCEPT TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY GIVEN THE PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPERATURES THAT DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY CAN SUPPORT THE MEX GUIDANCE
MAX TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  80  60  84 /  80  70  10  10
HOBART OK         66  80  59  85 /  80  70  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  82  61  86 /  50  60  10  10
GAGE OK           61  77  53  84 /  80  40  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     63  79  57  83 /  80  50  10  10
DURANT OK         72  83  63  85 /  40  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF STATE HIGHWAY 34 AND NORTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 33. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF I-35 IN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 10 PM THROUGH 7
AM WEDNESDAY.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NEAR A COLD FRONT THAT LIES FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS
HAVE ALSO BECOME A FOCUS FOR FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND KANSAS MOVES SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD REACH
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

BECAUSE OF EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE AREA...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND LIKELY MAINTAIN SEVERE STORMS
WITHIN THE STORM COMPLEX FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM 60 TO 80 MPH AND VERY LARGE
HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS ALSO LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...2 TO 3
INCHES IN MANY PLACES...WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY AUG 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7
AM WEDNESDAY.

RUFF/MAXWELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED FOR EVENT TIME/DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             GUTHRIE                 35.88N 97.43W
08/11/2004  1.00 INCH        LOGAN              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             GUTHRIE                 35.88N 97.43W
08/10/2004  1.00 INCH        LOGAN              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1211 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1204 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE GUTHRIE            35.84N 97.37W
08/11/2004  88 MPH           LOGAN              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND SPEED MEASURED.

1204 AM     TSTM WND GST     EDMOND                  35.65N 97.48W
08/11/2004  70 MPH           OKLAHOMA           OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WIND SPEED ESTIMATED. ELECTRICAL POWER IS OUT.

&&

KT

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