Severe Thunderstorm Warning 541, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

.UPDATE...
THE VANCE AFB RADAR AND/OR ITS COMMS HAS TAKEN A POWER HIT AND WILL
NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. TELECO AND VANCE JOB CONTROL
HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED.

11

&&

950 PM

YET ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT...

AN UPDATE TO THE FORECASTS WILL BE FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.  THE MAIN
CHANGES ARE TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF THE ONCOMING
MCS FROM WESTERN KANSAS.  THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THE GUST
FRONT... FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSELY BY THE STORMS THEMSELVES... SHOULD
REACH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA ABOUT MIDNIGHT...
WOODWARD ABOUT 2 AM... PONCA CITY ABOUT 4 AM... ETC.  ALSO INCREASED
POPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD FOR THE SMALL AREA THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THE ISOLATED SMALL STORM CLUSTER OVER NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.

CMS

-------------------------
300 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

INITIAL ISSUE IS... WILL THERE BE ANY LATE AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS NW/WRN OK ALONG RESIDUAL SFC BOUNDARY. MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND IF SFC BOUNDARY CAN FOCUS ANY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE... MAY GET A STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE... MAIN SHOW SHOULD
BE LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST PART OF TUESDAY AS MCS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN KS THIS EVENING. THIS
COMPLEX IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP SE INTO NRN OK AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAY
PUT SOME SEVERE WORDING IN AS STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OK.
THIS COMPLEX WILL ALSO DRIVE A COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND NORTH... WITH MAIN BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK BY TUE EVENING. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS SOUTH
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS PERHAPS ANOTHER MCS GETS GOING ACROSS ERN NM
INTO TX PANHANDLE AND THEN MOVES E/SE ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY.

COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO WED NIGHT AS WEAKENING SFC
BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE HANGING AROUND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NE OVER
AREA BY THIS TIME BRINGING AN END TO MUCH OF THE RAIN. ALTHOUGH
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS DRY WITH WARMING TREND... EXTENDED MODELS
ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG WITH THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE EXTENDED... BUT FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  87  67  89 /  30  60  30  30
HOBART OK         71  91  67  92 /  30  40  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  94  70  93 /  10  30  40  40
GAGE OK           65  84  63  90 /  60  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  84  64  86 /  60  60  30  20
DURANT OK         74  91  72  90 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CUSHING TO EL
RENO TO HOLLIS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
NIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 3000 OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 3 AND 6
PM...MOST LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...EAST OF
A DRY LINE EXPECTED TO LIE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW OF THESE STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. VERY
LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS...WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS... ALTHOUGH LARGE
HAIL ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUL 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1014 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             ALVA                    36.80N 98.67W
07/05/2004  1.00 INCH        WOODS              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOUTH SIDE OF ALVA

1000 PM     HAIL             ALVA                    36.80N 98.67W
07/05/2004  1.25 INCH        WOODS              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NORTH SIDE OF ALVA

&&

DEW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

OKZ004-005-009-010-060600-
ELLIS OK-HARPER OK-WOODS OK-WOODWARD OK-
1243 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ELLIS...HARPER...WOODS AND
WOODWARD COUNTIES.

AT 1245 AM... A LONG LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR
LAVERNE AND BUFFALO OKLAHOMA NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS.  A GUST
FRONT... THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG WINDS FLOWING AHEAD OF THE
STORMS... WAS JUST SOUTH OF LAVERNE AND BUFFALO.  THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST... AT ABOUT 40 TO 45 MPH.  GUSTY WINDS UP TO 65 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN ELLIS...HARPER...WOODS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF ALVA AND WOODWARD...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
131 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW BUFFALO            36.82N 99.64W
07/06/2004  61 MPH           HARPER             OK   MESONET

            VIA OKLAHOMA MESONET

0100 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW BUFFALO            36.82N 99.64W
07/06/2004  86 MPH           HARPER             OK   MESONET

            VIA OKLAHOMA MESONET

&&

DEW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
220 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     TSTM WND GST     16 NNE FREEDOM          36.98N 99.00W
07/06/2004  77 MPH           WOODS              OK   MESONET

            MAY RANCH MESONET

0145 AM     TSTM WND GST     16 NNE FREEDOM          36.98N 99.00W
07/06/2004  70 MPH           WOODS              OK   MESONET

            MAY RANCH MESONET

0212 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 SW ALVA               36.77N 98.71W
07/06/2004  75 MPH           WOODS              OK   AWOS

&&

DEW