Severe Thunderstorm Warning 526, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

INITIAL ISSUE IS... WILL THERE BE ANY LATE AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION
ACROSS NW/WRN OK ALONG RESIDUAL SFC BOUNDARY. MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT AND IF SFC BOUNDARY CAN FOCUS ANY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE... MAY GET A STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE... MAIN SHOW SHOULD
BE LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST PART OF TUESDAY AS MCS DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN KS THIS EVENING. THIS
COMPLEX IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP SE INTO NRN OK AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAY
PUT SOME SEVERE WORDING IN AS STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN OK.
THIS COMPLEX WILL ALSO DRIVE A COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND NORTH... WITH MAIN BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK BY TUE EVENING. BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS SOUTH
TUE NIGHT AND WED AS PERHAPS ANOTHER MCS GETS GOING ACROSS ERN NM
INTO TX PANHANDLE AND THEN MOVES E/SE ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY.

COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO WED NIGHT AS WEAKENING SFC
BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE HANGING AROUND. MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NE OVER
AREA BY THIS TIME BRINGING AN END TO MUCH OF THE RAIN. ALTHOUGH
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS DRY WITH WARMING TREND... EXTENDED MODELS
ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG WITH THIS MID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE EXTENDED... BUT FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  87  67  89 /  30  60  30  30
HOBART OK         71  91  67  92 /  30  40  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  94  70  93 /  10  30  40  40
GAGE OK           65  84  63  90 /  60  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     69  84  64  86 /  60  60  30  20
DURANT OK         74  91  72  90 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
STILLWATER TO CHEYENNE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT HAVE LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OR SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ALSO A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

A WARM LAYER OF AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL ACT TO INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH
STRONG HEATING...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY
LINE...AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OR
SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE... AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
MAY AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUL 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

2

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
743 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             GARBER                  36.44N 97.58W
07/05/2004  1.25 INCH        GARFIELD           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
804 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             FAIRMONT                36.35N 97.70W
07/05/2004  1.75 INCH        GARFIELD           OK   PUBLIC

&&

FM/DEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
821 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             4 WSW COVINGTON         36.29N 97.65W
07/05/2004  2.50 INCH        GARFIELD           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KWTV STORM SPOTTER

&&

FM/DEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
831 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HAIL             8 WSW POND CREEK        36.62N 97.93W
07/05/2004  2.00 INCH        GRANT              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FM/DEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
834 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HAIL             4 ENE HILLSDALE         36.59N 97.93W
07/05/2004  2.00 INCH        GARFIELD           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

FM/DEW