Severe Thunderstorm Warning 384, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT WED JUN  2 2004

.DISCUSSION...
A CONTINUOUS BARRAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY HAS LEFT
LITTLE TIME FOR MUCH ELSE.  MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND TOMORROW.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING... IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT MCS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO ITS WEST ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

LATER TONIGHT... WE EXPECT A SECOND MCS TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
HIGH PLAINS AND TO THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES.  SOME HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING.  THIS MCS SHOULD RELEASE ITS
GRIP ON OUR FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW.

ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT... GIVEN THE
SIMILAR LAYOUT OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.

AFTER THAT... THE BASIC PLAN IS A SERIES OF SMALL DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN... WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  82  66  86 /  40  30  20  20
HOBART OK         65  84  66  88 /  60  30  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  84  68  88 /  70  30  30  20
GAGE OK           61  82  63  87 /  40  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  82  64  85 /  20  20  10  20
DURANT OK         68  83  68  87 /  80  30  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

TIMING...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES WILL EXIST THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW
MANY OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE...WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY...WHICH
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN
THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL... WINDS
TO 70 MPH AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IF STORMS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEY
MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUN 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AND MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND VARIOUS
SURFACE BOUNDARIES LINGER IN THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
444 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             OKLAHOMA CITY           35.47N 97.51W
06/02/2004  0.75 INCH        OKLAHOMA           OK   PUBLIC

            REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN OKC

&&

JP/FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
448 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND GST     MIDDLEBERG              35.10N 97.74W
06/02/2004  60 MPH           GRADY              OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED WIND GUST

&&

JP/FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
451 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W BYARS               34.87N 97.16W
06/02/2004  60 MPH           MCCLAIN            OK   PUBLIC

            SPEED ESTIMATED

&&

JP/FM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
457 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W PAOLI               34.83N 97.30W
06/02/2004  65 MPH           GARVIN             OK   PUBLIC

            SPEED ESTIMATED

&&

JP/FM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
501 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

OKZ038-039-022215-
COMANCHE OK-STEPHENS OK-
501 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COMANCHE AND NORTHWESTERN
STEPHENS COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME EASTERN WICHITA
MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE REFUGE AT 501 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
ANOTHER INTENSIFYING STORM WAS JUST SOUTH OF STERLING AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF STEPHENS COUNTY BY 515 PM.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
508 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             8 S WETUMKA             35.13N 96.24W
06/02/2004  1.00 INCH        HUGHES             OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

0440 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SW STUART             34.83N 96.19W
06/02/2004  60 MPH           HUGHES             OK   PUBLIC

            SPEED ESTIMATED.

&&

KT/FM