Severe Thunderstorm Warning 382, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT WED JUN  2 2004

.DISCUSSION...
A CONTINUOUS BARRAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY HAS LEFT
LITTLE TIME FOR MUCH ELSE.  MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
BEYOND TOMORROW.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING... IT APPEARS THAT THE CURRENT MCS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO ITS WEST ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

LATER TONIGHT... WE EXPECT A SECOND MCS TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
HIGH PLAINS AND TO THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES.  SOME HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING.  THIS MCS SHOULD RELEASE ITS
GRIP ON OUR FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW.

ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT... GIVEN THE
SIMILAR LAYOUT OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.

AFTER THAT... THE BASIC PLAN IS A SERIES OF SMALL DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN... WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  82  66  86 /  40  30  20  20
HOBART OK         65  84  66  88 /  60  30  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  84  68  88 /  70  30  30  20
GAGE OK           61  82  63  87 /  40  10  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     61  82  64  85 /  20  20  10  20
DURANT OK         68  83  68  87 /  80  30  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND OR EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO GREATER INSTABILITY. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...ALONG A LINE FROM STILLWATER
...TO FAIRVIEW...AND ARNETT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL ALLOW MANY OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE...WITH SUPERCELLS
LIKELY...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS...AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH. STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THESE
AREAS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THEY CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD...BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN...CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLES...WITH STORMS THEN
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...
POSSIBLY INFLUENCING PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY
BE SUPERCELLS...WITH GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 70 MPH
POSSIBLE. IF STORMS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THEY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO
ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERN BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUN 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AND MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK
IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND VARIOUS
SURFACE BOUNDARIES LINGER IN THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

JAMES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
307 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             OKLAHOMA CITY           35.47N 97.51W
06/02/2004  1.25 INCH        OKLAHOMA           OK   PUBLIC

            HAIL REPORTED AT HEFNER AND ROCKWELL.

&&

JP/KT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             OKLAHOMA CITY           35.47N 97.51W
06/02/2004  1.00 INCH        OKLAHOMA           OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MEASURED BY OFF DUTY NWS FORECASTER AT N36TH NW AND ANN
            ARBOR.

0259 PM     HAIL             OKLAHOMA CITY           35.47N 97.51W
06/02/2004  1.00 INCH        OKLAHOMA           OK   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT NW 32ND AND MERIDIAN.

0255 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N EL RENO             35.55N 97.95W
06/02/2004  70 MPH           CANADIAN           OK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            ESTIMATED WIND GUST

&&

JP/KT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
318 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

OKZ016-022-023-022030-
CADDO OK-CUSTER OK-WASHITA OK-
318 PM CDT WED JUN 2 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO...SOUTHERN CUSTER AND
WASHITA COUNTIES.

AT 318 PM CDT... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR FOSS LAKE... TO WEATHERFORD... TO NORTH OF
BINGER. STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CADDO...CUSTER AND WASHITA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF CLINTON AND WEATHERFORD...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

 MILLER

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