Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
345 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL INFLUENCE THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA. FLOOD WATCH ISSUED EARLIER TODAY HAS BEEN EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE A FEW MORE COUNTIES WEST OF THE INITIAL WATCH. AREAS OF
DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OR EXPAND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT AS WARMER TEMPS/HIGHER DEWPOINT ADVECT OVER
COOL AND WET GROUND. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END BY MIDDAY SATURDAY
AS DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND LIFT DIMINISHES. SUBSIDENCE
AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL THEN INFLUENCE THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
A CANADIAN AIRMASS EJECTING SOUTHWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MUCH COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. CHANCE POPS APPEAR WARRANTED THIS
TIME AS WELL.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  66  50  71 / 100  90  20   0
HOBART OK         50  62  49  72 /  90  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  58  69  52  74 / 100  40  20   0
GAGE OK           45  55  45  71 /  60  40  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     56  63  49  69 / 100 100  30   0
DURANT OK         69  76  55  73 /  70  90  40   0

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT MOST OF OKLAHOMA EXCEPT EXTREME WESTERN
AREAS.
TX...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALL BUT FOARD/HARDEMAN/KNOX COUNTIES

JAMES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
TO THE NORTH OF THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TRUSCOTT TO
VERNON TEXAS... TO PAULS VALLEY OKLAHOMA TO DURANT OKLAHOMA. THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH OF THE MODERATE RISK AND COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM 3 PM THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND WINDS TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. IN
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...HAIL TO THE QUARTERS AND WINDS TO 70 MPH
ARE EXPECTED.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDS FROM
NEAR CROWELL TEXAS TO FREDERICK AND SEMINOLE OKLAHOMA. THE AIRMASS
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS QUITE UNSTABLE. SOME OF THIS
UNSTABLE AIR IS MOVING ABOVE THE WARM FRONT AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT... BUT
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. FARTHER SOUTH... THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGER HAIL IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE BY LATE
EVENING... AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA
OVERNIGHT... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY APR 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
TORRENTIAL RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...AND OR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN FROM ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH
OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
LOW MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST NEXT THURSDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
450 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     HAIL             4 SSW DUNCAN            34.47N 98.00W
04/23/2004  0.75 INCH        STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

0448 PM     HAIL             DUNCAN                  34.52N 97.97W
04/23/2004  1.75 INCH        STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

KT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
452 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

OKZ022-023-232200-
CADDO OK-WASHITA OK-
452 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CADDO AND WASHITA COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF FORT COBB RESERVOIR
AT 452 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO HALF AN INCH
IN DIAMATER... AND MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

PEOPLE IN CADDO AND WASHITA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CMS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             DUNCAN                  34.52N 97.97W
04/23/2004  1.75 INCH        STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED NEAR DUNCAN AIRPORT.

&&

KT