Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Norman, OK

April 22, 2004Clay County, Texas

NWS Norman, OK issued this flash flood warning at Apr 22, 2004, 7:50 PM CDT for Clay County, Texas. It was in force for 115 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 22, 2004, 7:50 PM CDT (00:50 UTC)
Expired: Apr 22, 2004, 9:45 PM CDT
In force: 115 min
Issued by: NWS Norman, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Clay County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1372 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -84 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1422 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 72 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 171 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.4
Supercell composite: 3.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KOUN 230055
FFWOKC
TXC077-230245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 750 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF JOY...THROUGH 
BELLEVUE AND AREAS JUST NORTH OF BELLEVUE. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT 
HIGHWAY 287 AND RURAL ROADS NEAR BELLEVUE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM ACTIVITY WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING 
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. 
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARM LANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF 
CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH 
FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR
VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES
INCLUDING SUVS AND PICKUP TRUCKS. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER
SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3363 9821 3356 9819 3356 9798 3374 9798

$$

11

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS74 KOUN 230128
FFSOKC
TXC077-230230-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
824 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY...

AT 820 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE 
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY...FROM NEAR 
JOY...EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BELLEVUE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
OF OVER 3 INCHES IS COMMON NEAR BELLEVUE AND FLOODING HAS NOW BEEN 
REPORTED. WATER IS COVERING HIGHWAY 287 ONE MILE SOUTH OF BELLEVUE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE VEHICLES INTO 
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3379 9801 3354 9799 3347 9831 3357 9833

$$
11

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Norman, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Apr 22, 4:05 PM CDT, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 22, 4:05 PM CDT, 3 hours 45 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED MESS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS.  THE STORMS THAT FORM THIS EVENING WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER
OUR EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... AND WILL LIKELY LEAVE
BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL PROBABLY SHOVE THE STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
FORM IN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO... THEN PROPAGATE EAST AS AN MCS
OVERNIGHT.  HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY FROM MANY OF THESE STORMS...
AND WE DID CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN CASE SUFFICIENT RAIN FOR
FLOODING BECOMES LIKELY.  AT ANY RATE... THE RESULTS OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

WE HAVE MADE THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE ASSUMPTIONS
STATED ABOVE... AND EXPECT QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.  STORMS ARE
ONCE AGAIN LIKELY TOMORROW... BUT THE EXACT POSITION WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT UNTIL AFTER TONIGHT.

WE HAVE ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE CLEARING OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY... AS THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE STORM SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED... AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUING PRECIPITATION.

CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER IS FINALLY DUE TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.  RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN BY
MID-WEEK... BUT MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  67  52  67 /  50  50  60  40
HOBART OK         56  64  49  66 /  50  60  50  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  61  75  55  68 /  30  60  50  40
GAGE OK           47  55  43  60 /  60  80  40  10
PONCA CITY OK     53  63  49  65 /  60  80  60  40
DURANT OK         66  78  60  71 /  30  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

23

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 22, 3:23 PM CDT, 4 hours 27 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
323 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CHANDLER...TO
SHAWNEE...PAULS VALLEY...AND GRADY OKLAHOMA...TO BELLEVUE TEXAS. THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST AND NORTH OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA ARE MOST LIKELY
FROM 3 TO 9 PM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SLIGHT RISK ARE MOST
LIKELY FROM 9 PM THROUGH TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS...AND WINDS TO 70 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELLS IS
HIGH...THE RISK OF TORNADOES IS LOW. IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...HAIL
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS IS EXPECTED.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODERATE
RISK AREA WILL BE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALONG WITH AMPLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS...WITH AVERAGE STORM
MOTION EAST AT 20 MPH. LIKE WEDNESDAY...THE LARGEST CONCERN WILL BE
FOR VERY LARGE AND DAMAGING HAIL...AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS NEAR 70
MPH. DUE TO WEAK LOWER LEVEL WIND SHEAR...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
BE LOW...BUT IT IS NOT ZERO.

A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HALVES OF
OKLAHOMA. A STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHING THE AREA...WILL ALLOW THE
LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW NEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...WITH LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER COLORADO...NEW MEXICO...AND THE OKLAHOMA...TEXAS
PANHANDLES...DUE TO STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW...AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THESE STORMS AS WELL.

THIS OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE OKLAHOMA CITY...LAWTON...AND
WICHITA FALLS...FROM THE MODERATE RISK AREA...DUE TO THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EAST OF THE THESE
CITIES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY APR 22.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
TORRENTIAL RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO
SLOW MOVEMENT...AND OR REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PRODUCED BY THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA. A POSSIBLE SCENARIO INCLUDES RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACTIVITY...PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAN REINFORCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...AND
PUSH IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS WOULD CONFINE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
TO EXTREME SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

JAMES

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 22, 4:59 PM CDT, 2 hours 51 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
459 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

OKZ045-046-050-222215-
CARTER OK-JEFFERSON OK-LOVE OK-
459 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CARTER...JEFFERSON AND LOVE
COUNTIES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN JEFFERSON
AND FAR SOUTHEAST CLAY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS
ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CARTER...JEFFERSON AND LOVE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY
OF ARDMORE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SIX

Local storm report, Apr 22, 6:13 PM CDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
613 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             5 SW SEMINOLE           35.18N 96.74W
04/22/2004  1.00 INCH        SEMINOLE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL REPORTED ON STATE HIGHWAY 59, 3 MILES WEST OF STATE
            HIGHWAY 99

&&

KT

Local storm report, Apr 22, 6:17 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             SEMINOLE                35.23N 96.67W
04/22/2004  0.88 INCH        SEMINOLE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JLP

Local storm report, Apr 22, 6:24 PM CDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
624 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             1 S SEMINOLE            35.21N 96.67W
04/22/2004  1.75 INCH        SEMINOLE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

KT

Local storm report, Apr 22, 7:12 PM CDT, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
712 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     HAIL             BELLEVUE                33.63N 98.02W
04/22/2004  0.88 INCH        CLAY               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

KT

Local storm report, Apr 22, 7:42 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
742 PM CDT THU APR 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             BELLEVUE                33.63N 98.02W
04/22/2004  1.00 INCH        CLAY               TX   PUBLIC

&&

KT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Norman, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 22, 7:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Clay	44 min
Apr 22, 8:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Clay	45 min
Apr 22, 9:16 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Clay	3 hr
Apr 22, 11:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Clay	37 min
Apr 22, 11:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Clay	29 min
Apr 23, 12:03 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Clay	6 hr
Apr 23, 12:14 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Clay	46 min
Apr 23, 1:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Wilbarger	51 min
Apr 23, 2:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Wilbarger	28 min
Apr 23, 3:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Baylor	44 min
Apr 23, 4:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Baylor	44 min
Apr 23, 5:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer	43 min
Apr 23, 5:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer	45 min
Apr 23, 6:17 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	OUN	Clay	4 hr
Apr 23, 6:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer, Clay	43 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2004 Every flash flood warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.