Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
315 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL NY/NJ
COUNTIES...EXCEPT SUFFOLK UNTIL 01Z (9 PM EDT). CLUSTERS OF STORMS
OVER EASTERN PA ASSOCIATED WITH LEE TROUGH ARE MOVING INTO MOIST AND
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR
OF 20-30KT...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. LARGE HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A
THREAT ATTM WITH MELTING AND WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS UP NEAR 15 KFT.
SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON FLOOD POTENTIAL.
&&

.AVIATION...LOOKING AT BRIEF IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS AT
KHPN/KBDR/KGON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS FIRST CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES
EAST...THEN AGAIN AT ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN SECOND LINE ARRIVES...AT TERMINALS WEST OF THE HUDSON BETWEEN
20-21Z...IN NYC 21-22Z...THEN CT AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS BETWEEN
22Z-24Z. HAVE KEPT MVFR CONDITIONS GOING TONIGHT FOLLOWING PASSAGE
OF THESE STORMS...SUBJECT TO AMENDMENT DEPENDING ON FUTURE TRENDS OF
CONVECTION FARTHER BACK ACROSS WESTERN PA ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
LOW OVER LAKE ERIE AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SOME IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST
FLOW...IMPROVING TO VFR BY 12Z FRIDAY AS WINDS TURN WEST.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOOKING FOR MEAN AREAL QPF VALUES AROUND ONE-HALF INCH...HOWEVER
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. WILL MONITOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF NYC...WHERE TRAINING OF CELLS
IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY INITIAL CLUSTER
WHICH MOVED ACROSS ORANGE/ROCKLAND WESTCHESTER EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM...WESTERLIES REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY...WHICH HAS BEEN THE THEME SO FAR DURING THIS WARM
SEASON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES...THE
FIRST OF WHICH OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER AROUND MID
WEEK. WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
TUE...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT ON
WED. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&

.MARINE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM FOR
THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS AND HARBOR. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK
TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG IT TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. GENERALLY A LIGHT S-SW
FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SAT. AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SAT AFTERNOON...A TIGHTER NW GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH RELATIVELY
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL
WATERS SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUN THROUGH MON WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD ON TUES...WITH AN INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NJ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT ALL ZONES...
     NJZ002>006-011.
NY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT...NYZ067>077.
MARINE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT NY HARBOR AND
         SANDY HOOK TO FIRE ISLAND INLET...ANZ338-355.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
947 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-181000-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
NORTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-QUEENS NY-
RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON CT-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-
UNION NJ-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
947 AM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE TRI-STATE AREA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

A RETREATING WARM FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY LESS STABLE
ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS AND PONDING ON ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
317 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>077-180100-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-QUEENS NY-
RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
UNION NJ-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
317 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY
AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEW YORK UNTIL 9 PM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...BERGEN...ESSEX...HUDSON...PASSAIC
AND UNION.

IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NASSAU...
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...ORANGE...PUTNAM...QUEENS...
RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)...ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCES DAMAGING WINDS GREATER THAN 57
MPH AND/OR LARGE HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR
GREATER. BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED OR IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
412 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

NYZ076-172115-
QUEENS-
412 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN UPTON NY
HAS DETECTED AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CLEARVIEW
EXPRESSWAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

BASED ON THIS MOVEMENT...THE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE IN
THE VICINITY OF...
JAMAICA AROUND 420 PM...
GLEN OAKS AROUND 425 PM...

WIND GUSTS FROM 46 MPH TO 57 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM MAY FLOOD LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE
AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
615 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-180100-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
NORTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-QUEENS NY-
RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-ROCKLAND NY-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON CT-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-
UNION NJ-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
615 PM EDT THU JUN 17 2004

...THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ACTUALLY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OR LARGE HAIL HOWEVER THE
GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS REPORTED IN
SOME AREAS...NAMELY NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS AND THE BRONX. WITH
MORE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE. MOTORIST SHOULD USE
APPROPRIATE CAUTION AS SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER ON SOME ROADWAYS
WILL PRESENT A DANGER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV