Severe Thunderstorm Warning 270, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
420 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE TENNESSEE GETTING READY FOR SOME MORE ROCKING AND ROLLING.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS JUST RECOVERING FROM A DAMAGING MCS THAT RACED
ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT, BLOWING TREES DOWN RIGHT AND LEFT AND
KNOCKING POWER OUT TO THOUSANDS OF CUSTOMERS. NOW, UPSTREAM, WE HAVE
A SIMILAR CREATURE ROARING DOWN ON US FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THREATENING
SEVERE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA (ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF).

UNTIL SURFACE BOUNDARY CROSSES MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TODAY AND
TONGIHT, BELEIVE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH AND HAVE GONE
WITH 50-60% POPS FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
IN LINE WITH SPCS DAY1 OUTLOOK, AND IMPENDING SEVERE STORMS TO OUR
NORTHWEST, HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN
THE ZFP TEXT.

WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WERE THE MAIN PROBLEM FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS,
SDF AND OHX INDICATED A TREND TOWARD SOME HAILERS BY THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. THUS, WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HAIL TO AT LEAST NICKEL TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE BIGGER STORMS TODAY.

STORMS FINALLY EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT, HERALDING A TURN TO SOME
DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-151030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WHICH PUSHED
THROUGH THE MID STATE ON TUESDAY EVENING, THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THEREFORE, LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE PRIMARY DANGER FROM TODAYS ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION,
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY, HEAT INDICES VALUES MAY TOP 100 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY,
MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF NASHVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE NEEDED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ROSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
127 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 AM     HAIL             5 E PORTLAND            36.59N 86.43W
07/14/2004  1.00 INCH        SUMNER             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

ROSE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
539 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-141145-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
539 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF STEWART...MONTGOMERY AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES AROUND 6
AM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES OR WARNINGS.

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