Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
627 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING ACROSS SOUTHERN IN
AND EASTERN IL AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. LATEST 18Z MESOETA APPEARS TO
BE BETTER IN LINE WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE POSITIONING OF THE ACTIVITY IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
THAN WHAT THE META INDICATES. STILL THOUGH...DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE
HIGH ACROSS THE AREA SO THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES TOWARD MIDDLE TN.

FOR THE FCST...WILL UP POPS TO 60 PERCENT FOR THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES AND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE WEST. WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPS
1 CAT ACROSS THE ZONES WHICH HAVE MID 70S FOR LOWS. WHEN THE PRECIP
ARRIVES...DRIER COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY COOL SFC TEMPS DOWN AS
IT IS ALREADY DOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL AND IN.

FINALLY...WILL MENTION SEVERE STORMS AS BEING POSSIBLE FOR ALL
ZONES. UPDATE DUE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
610 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-141000-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
610 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL IN WILL
BE MOVING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST. WITH A WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO MIDDLE TN LATER TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TN WITH THESE STORMS. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH THE KY AND TN BORDER
AROUND 9 PM OR 10 PM WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHERN MOST
PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN BY 4 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
COOLER AIR TRICKLES INTO THE MID STATE. THEREFORE, WEDNESDAY MAY
SEE MORE OF THE SAME WEATHER, WITH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ONCE AGAIN UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE NEEDED
BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
736 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-140230-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
736 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

...LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER ON THE INCREASE ACROSS MIDDLE TN
TONIGHT...

AT 730 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED INTO CENTRAL KY. THE LINE WAS
LOCATED AS FAR SOUTH AS FORT KNOX KY AND OWENSBORO KY. AS THE LINE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 45 TO 50 MPH...IT IS
BECOMING MORE AND MORE OF A CERTAINTY THAT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TN AROUND 845 PM THIS EVENING.

DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN A GOOD POSSIBILITY
ACROSS THE AREA. PEOPLE IN ALL OF MIDDLE TN ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED
AS THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION BARES DOWN ON THE MIDDLE TN AREA.

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