Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
320 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
BY MID AFTERNOON, THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WAS
STARTING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MID STATE UNTIL 800 PM THIS
EVENING.

EXPECT BAND OF DEEP MEAN R.H. TO BE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE MUCH OF
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD OUT OF ARKANSAS. WILL GO WITH A 60% POP FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT, WITH A 40-50% POP ELSEWHERE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOW
TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THUS, WILL REDUCE
CHANCE OF RAIN TO 20% FOR MOST AREAS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT KEEP
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN PLACE OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE  DAY.

DECENT LOW LEVEL DRYING IS PROGGED TO MOVE BY TOMORROW NIGHT, AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES.

FOR LATE WEEK, EXPECT MAIN WEATHER PATTERN TO CHANGE, AS LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND UPPER JET LIFTS
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. IF THIS HAPPENS, IT SHOULD (FINALLY)
PRODUCE A DRYING TREND FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS, EXPECT NO MORE
THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAST PART
OF THIS WEEK AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THEN AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
437 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SE CLARKSVILLE        36.48N 87.25W
07/06/2004                   MONTGOMERY         TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON ASHLAND CITY ROAD.

&&

VIRTS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
449 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DICKSON                 36.08N 87.38W
07/06/2004                   DICKSON            TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 46.

&&

VIRTS