Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
320 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
BY MID AFTERNOON, THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WAS
STARTING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MID STATE UNTIL 800 PM THIS
EVENING.

EXPECT BAND OF DEEP MEAN R.H. TO BE OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE MUCH OF
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD OUT OF ARKANSAS. WILL GO WITH A 60% POP FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT, WITH A 40-50% POP ELSEWHERE.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SLOW
TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. THUS, WILL REDUCE
CHANCE OF RAIN TO 20% FOR MOST AREAS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT KEEP
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN PLACE OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE  DAY.

DECENT LOW LEVEL DRYING IS PROGGED TO MOVE BY TOMORROW NIGHT, AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES.

FOR LATE WEEK, EXPECT MAIN WEATHER PATTERN TO CHANGE, AS LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND UPPER JET LIFTS
CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. IF THIS HAPPENS, IT SHOULD (FINALLY)
PRODUCE A DRYING TREND FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS, EXPECT NO MORE
THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAST PART
OF THIS WEEK AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THEN AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

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