Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
913 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NORTH OF
THE TENNESSEE BORDER DRIFTING NORTHWARD.  IN WESTERN KENTUCKY ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS HAVE AND CURRENTLY
WERE TAKEN PLACE. THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT A LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  TONIGHT ALL THE
MODELS KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID STATE.  WILL
STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE THAT HAS THE POPS A CATEGORY
OR TWO LOWER THAN THE MODELS. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DECREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE LOST THE DAYTIME HEATING.
ACROSS THE MID STATE SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE SOUTHERLY WIND 5 TO 10
MPH KEEPING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. AT 8 PM WE
HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60S.

STILL WATCHING THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CLOSE IN ON THE MID STATE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO BE OVER DOING THE
PRECIP WITH A 4 INCH BULLSEYE IN WESTERN TENNESSEE AT 6Z AND
BRINGING THE STORMS FASTER TO THE MID STATE THAN THE ETA AND NGM.
LOOKS LIKE A BLEND OF THE ETA AND NGM WILL BE THE CHOICE.  THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE IN WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE MID STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT IN THE MID STATE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MONDAY...AND THAT A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND ENERGY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

04