Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
246 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

.DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS HOUR WILL BE
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR MIDDLE TN. WIND ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE AVN...APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING THE DYNAMICS
FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE 50 POPS BUT
NOT THE 70 AND 80 POPS WHICH ARE BEING ADVERTISED BY THE GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT IS WHEN THE SEVERE WEATHER ACTION WILL BEGIN. BEST UPPER
DYNAMICS AND THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH OF
TN. HOWEVER...A CLOSER LOOK REVEALS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL POSITIONING ALONG THE MS RIVER AT 06Z.
FURTHERMORE...SOME UPPER DIVERGENT FLOW IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE OMEGA FIELD ENTERING WESTERN MIDDLE TN
IN THE 05Z TO 09Z TIMEFRAME. 850 MB WIND FIELDS SHOW A 50 TO 60 KT
JET AND PLENTY OF WIND ENERGY IN PLACE FOR THE STORMS TO TAP INTO.
MODELS SLAM THE OMEGA FIELD SOUTH OF TN JUST BEFORE 12Z. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END BEFORE 12Z AREA
WIDE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY
MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS ALL ZONES...BUT ONLY INCLUDE THE MENTION OF
SEVERE FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AND THE PLATEAU. OTHERWISE...SEVERE
WEATHER WORDING WILL STILL BE INCLUDED FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN LATE
TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL LIKELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVENESS
OF THE EVENT AND THE RATHER HIGH FFG VALUES...I DO NOT EXPECT FLASH
FLOODING OTHER THAT AN ISOLATED EVENT OR TWO.

SUNSHINE TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON ON MEMORIAL DAY. LOWER DEWPOINTS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A COOLER THAN NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. WILL KEEP CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPS...MAY NEED
TO GO A DEGREE WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND
BELIEVE IT OR NOT...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW
DAYS.

&&

.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-301030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON MONDAY...AND THAT A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND ENERGY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

04