Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
220 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH
STRONG COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK ON THURSDAY.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z PLACED THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE
DOOR OF OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA...EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE...THE DRY LINE EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HAD UPGRADED A PORTION OF THE WIND
ADVISORY EARLIER FOR THOSE AREAS THAT REMAINED CLEAR WITH MODELS ALL
INDICATING DEEP LAYER MIXING TAKING HOLD THROUGH MAXIMUM DIURNAL
HEATING...THUS RESULTING IN A MIXED LAYER ALMOST UP TO 600 MB. FSL
20KM RUC INDICATED THAT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THAT REGION...NORTHWEST
OF A PLATTE TO WAYNE COUNTY LINE...WOULD LIKELY SEE SPEEDS INCREASE
TO 35 KNOTS OR BETTER THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...THUS STILL FEEL
CONFIDENT ABOUT HIGH WIND POTENTIAL THERE. THATS ALSO IN THE SAME
CORRIDOR WHERE THE CAP HAS ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED ALLOWING CU TO POP
RATHER QUICKLY. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR OF 50+ KNOTS REMAINS IN THAT
REGION...AND THUS WOULD ANTICIPATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO MANIFEST
THEMSELVES (MOST LIKELY AS SUPERCELLS) WITHIN THE HOUR OR TWO.
CONFERENCE CALL WITH SPC JUST NOW DISCUSSED THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...AND THE CONSENSUS WAS THAT ONE WOULD BE
ISSUED SOON FOR A PORTION OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE REMAINED WHICH HAS ALLOWED A
STRONG CAP TO STILL EXIST AS INDICATED BY AN 18Z OAX SOUNDING.
THUS...WELL STILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THAT AS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE DRY
LINE. LATEST KOAX RADAR TRENDS INDICATE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NOW
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THOSE CLOSELY FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALSO...BUT CAP STILL
APPEARS TO BE HOLDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL UNTIL JUST A BIT LATER.

PRIMARY HAZARDS SEEM TO BE HIGH WINDS (STRONGER THAN THE GRADIENT
WINDS ALREADY ARE) DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE DOWNDRAFTS AND
LARGE HAIL DUE TO FAVORED WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THE HAZARD SHOULD SHIFT TO MORE OF A HAIL THREAT POST
FRONT AS THE WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE COUNTERED BY INCREASING STABILITY
AT THE SURFACE.

OTHERWISE...HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY.  LIKELY POPS STILL
SEEM IN ORDER...AND SEE NO REASON TO ALTER AT THIS TIME.

NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AGAIN...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES THROUGH THAT TIME AS
WEVE FOCUSED MUCH OF OUR EFFORT ON THE NEAR TERM.

&&

 WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NE...WIND ADVSRY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PLATTE TO
WAYNE COUNTIES. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT NORTHEAST OF SAID
LINE.
.IA...WIND ADVSRY UNTIL 8 PM CDT.

&&

DEWALD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
547 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TORNADO          2 ESE PIERCE            42.19N 97.49W
04/18/2004                   PIERCE             NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND EAST SOUTHEAST
            OF PIERCE. DEBRIS WAS REPORTED.

&&

DEWALD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
606 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TORNADO          5 W CARROLL             42.28N 97.29W
04/18/2004                   WAYNE              NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
611 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     HAIL             2 SE PIERCE             42.18N 97.50W
04/18/2004  1.00 INCH        PIERCE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DEWALD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
655 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             3 SW WAYNE              42.21N 97.06W
04/18/2004  1.00 INCH        WAYNE              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DEWALD