Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
217 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
BRIEF DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA.

ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHER
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MSAS SBCAPES OVER NRN KS WERE OVER 4000
J/KG WITH LIS PUSHING -13. A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT OVER
THE CWA AND WAS PUSHING EAST/NORTHEAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM SRN MN INTO SERN NEB AND NRN KS IS THE DIVIDING LINE FOR AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WEAK MLCINH AND FAVORABLE LSI VALUES INDICATE NO
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING PRESENT TO HAMPER STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...
MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT HELPING TO ENHANCE
CURRENTLY ACTIVE STORMS.

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE FOR MORE STORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST SPC DAY
1 SHOWS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE MODERATE RISK. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS BROAD TROF WHICH SHOULD HELP ENHANCE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY...ALBEIT MAINLY SOUTH WERE HIGH LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN. THEREFORE WILL COVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80...HEAVILY WITH POPS AND SMALL POPS
ELSEWHERE. FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...TAKING PCPN CHANCES WITH IT. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SOME SLGT
POPS IN PLACE OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR ANY EXITING
ACTIVITY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PCPN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE ETA ADVERTISES LOW LEVEL QG-
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER THE CWA AS DEEP LAYER OMEGA VALUES
INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOING POP
FCST SEEM REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT. FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE DETERMINED BY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LOCATION.
CONFIDENT RATHER LOW GIVEN EXTENDED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

 &&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

IAZ043-055-056-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-122300-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-HARRISON IA-KNOX-
MADISON-MONONA IA-PIERCE-PLATTE-SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS AND A WARM FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL
BRING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING. SEVERE STORMS...AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE SUNDAY AND LATE MONDAY.
LATER HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO LATE EVENING.

IAZ069-079-080-090-091-NEZ050>053-065>068-078-088>093-122300-
BUTLER-CASS-DOUGLAS-FREMONT IA-GAGE-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LANCASTER-
MILLS IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-
RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WARM MOIST AIR MOVES
NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM KANSAS AND MISSOURI.  STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY...AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

DUE TO THE EARLY AND RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...
A CONFERENCE CALL WILL NOT BE SCHEDULED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING. SEVERE STORMS...AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE SUNDAY AND LATE MONDAY.
LATER HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

POLLACK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
416 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     HAIL             4 SW DORCHESTER         40.61N 97.17W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
435 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             8 S FRIEND              40.54N 97.28W
06/12/2004  2.00 INCH        SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0420 PM     HAIL             WILBER                  40.48N 96.96W
06/12/2004  2.00 INCH        SALINE             NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            SIXTH AND L STREETS WEST OF WILBER

0420 PM     HAIL             NELIGH                  42.13N 98.03W
06/12/2004  1.75 INCH        ANTELOPE           NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0415 PM     HAIL             4 NE GRETNA             41.18N 96.19W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        SARPY              NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DIME SIZE HAIL COVERING BACK DECK OF HOME

0405 PM     HAIL             OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        DOUGLAS            NE   PUBLIC

            ONE HUNDRED FORTY FOURTH AND WEST CENTER IN OMAHA

0435 PM     HAIL             CRETE                   40.63N 96.96W
06/12/2004  0.88 INCH        SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
510 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             4 NW HALLAM             40.58N 96.84W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        LANCASTER          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0459 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WILBER                  40.48N 96.96W
06/12/2004  69 MPH           SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0459 PM     HAIL             4 SW DENTON             40.70N 96.90W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

0455 PM     HAIL             2 NW WILBER             40.50N 96.99W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        SALINE             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
513 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     HAIL             5 S DENTON              40.67N 96.84W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
519 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     HAIL             CRETE                   40.63N 96.96W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
548 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW SPRAGUE            40.64N 96.76W
06/12/2004  60 MPH           LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

0523 PM     HAIL             WILBER                  40.48N 96.96W
06/12/2004  1.25 INCH        SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0523 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WILBER                  40.48N 96.96W
06/12/2004  69 MPH           SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0523 PM     FLOOD            WILBER                  40.48N 96.96W
06/12/2004                   SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR STREET FLOODING

0523 PM     HAIL             2 SW PALMYRA            40.69N 96.42W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        OTOE               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0528 PM     HAIL             4 SE CRETE              40.58N 96.90W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        LANCASTER          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0538 PM     HAIL             1 N HICKMAN             40.64N 96.63W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        LANCASTER          NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0526 PM     HAIL             5 ESE CRETE             40.60N 96.87W
06/12/2004  1.25 INCH        LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

0526 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE CRETE             40.60N 96.87W
06/12/2004  60 MPH           LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

0524 PM     HAIL             1 N HALLAM              40.55N 96.79W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

0525 PM     HAIL             3 S SPRAGUE             40.58N 96.75W
06/12/2004  1.75 INCH        LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JB