Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
217 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
BRIEF DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA.

ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHER
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. MSAS SBCAPES OVER NRN KS WERE OVER 4000
J/KG WITH LIS PUSHING -13. A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAVE BROKEN OUT OVER
THE CWA AND WAS PUSHING EAST/NORTHEAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM SRN MN INTO SERN NEB AND NRN KS IS THE DIVIDING LINE FOR AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WEAK MLCINH AND FAVORABLE LSI VALUES INDICATE NO
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING PRESENT TO HAMPER STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...
MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT HELPING TO ENHANCE
CURRENTLY ACTIVE STORMS.

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE FOR MORE STORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST SPC DAY
1 SHOWS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE MODERATE RISK. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS BROAD TROF WHICH SHOULD HELP ENHANCE
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY...ALBEIT MAINLY SOUTH WERE HIGH LEVEL OF
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN. THEREFORE WILL COVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80...HEAVILY WITH POPS AND SMALL POPS
ELSEWHERE. FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...TAKING PCPN CHANCES WITH IT. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP SOME SLGT
POPS IN PLACE OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR ANY EXITING
ACTIVITY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...PCPN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE ETA ADVERTISES LOW LEVEL QG-
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER THE CWA AS DEEP LAYER OMEGA VALUES
INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOING POP
FCST SEEM REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT. FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...PCPN
CHANCES WILL BE DETERMINED BY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LOCATION.
CONFIDENT RATHER LOW GIVEN EXTENDED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

 &&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

IAZ043-055-056-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-122300-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-HARRISON IA-KNOX-
MADISON-MONONA IA-PIERCE-PLATTE-SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS AND A WARM FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL
BRING WARM AND MOIST AIR BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.  STRONG INSTABILITY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL HELP CAUSE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING. SEVERE STORMS...AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE SUNDAY AND LATE MONDAY.
LATER HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO LATE EVENING.

IAZ069-079-080-090-091-NEZ050>053-065>068-078-088>093-122300-
BUTLER-CASS-DOUGLAS-FREMONT IA-GAGE-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LANCASTER-
MILLS IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-
RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALL AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WARM MOIST AIR MOVES
NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM KANSAS AND MISSOURI.  STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY...AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

DUE TO THE EARLY AND RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...
A CONFERENCE CALL WILL NOT BE SCHEDULED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE EVENING. SEVERE STORMS...AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE SUNDAY AND LATE MONDAY.
LATER HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

POLLACK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
1129 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     HAIL             9 NE TOBIAS             40.51N 97.22W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        SALINE             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8 MILES EAST OF MILIGAN

1115 AM     HAIL             3 S TOBIAS              40.38N 97.34W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
1231 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 AM     TORNADO          5 W CEDAR BLUFFS        41.40N 96.71W
06/12/2004                   SAUNDERS           NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HIGHWAY 77 AND COUNTY ROAD 10

&&

JEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
153 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     HAIL             2 SW CRETE              40.61N 96.99W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1137 AM     HAIL             WESTERN                 40.39N 97.20W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1234 PM     TSTM WND GST     VALLEY                  41.31N 96.35W
06/12/2004  60 MPH           DOUGLAS            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE FLATTENED TRALER HOME.

1255 PM     TSTM WND GST     OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W
06/12/2004  60 MPH           DOUGLAS            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0113 PM     HAIL             2 NW DOUGLAS            40.61N 96.42W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        OTOE               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0115 PM     HAIL             CORTLAND                40.51N 96.71W
06/12/2004  0.75 INCH        GAGE               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0123 PM     HAIL             DOUGLAS                 40.59N 96.39W
06/12/2004  0.88 INCH        OTOE               NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

TFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
208 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             DUNBAR                  40.67N 96.03W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        OTOE               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

TFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE
229 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     HAIL             ASHLAND                 41.04N 96.37W
06/12/2004  1.00 INCH        SAUNDERS           NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TFL