Special Marine Warning 8, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 AM CST MON 26 JAN 2004

.SHORT TERM...TURNING OUT TO BE A BUSY SECOND HALF OF THE SHIFT. WE
HAVE BEEN WATCHING A NARROW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS WERE DEPOSITING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS. THUNDERSTORMS
WERE FORMING WITHIN A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WHERE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT HAS BEEN INCREASING. BEST INSTABILITY HOWEVER...REMAINS
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST WHERE CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL
ENERGY WAS 500 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS AREA EXTENDS OUT INTO THE MARINE
ZONES. THREAT AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS LOOKS TO
OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 INCLUDING ALL OF THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING
BRIEFLY SEVERE IN THESE AREAS...PER LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER
OUTLOOKS. AFTER TODAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN WITH RESPECT
TO RAIN AND THEN COMES A COLD BREATH FROM OLD MAN WINTER. COLD FRONT
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWEST WIND SENDING COLD
TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGS A BRISK DAY TO
THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE TIME TO BREAK OUT THE COVERS
FOR BOTH PERSONAL AND OUTDOOR USE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
PLUNGE WELL INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EXTENDED...CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS LAST INTO MID WEEK. WILL SEE
ANOTHER UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. COOLING AIRMASS...PUSHING OFF THE COAST TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...CAUSES OFFSHORE FLOW TO BECOME STRONG AND
SEAS TO BUILD. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE...AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY OUT ON TUESDAY. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     72 42 52 25 / 60 00 00 00
PENSACOLA  71 44 53 26 / 80 00 00 00
DESTIN     70 49 54 35 / 90 00 00 00
EVERGREEN  72 41 48 21 / 60 00 00 00
WAYNESBORO 69 36 46 22 / 20 00 00 00
CAMDEN     72 38 48 22 / 60 00 00 00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES TONIGHT.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES TONIGHT.
MS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-261800-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
500 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTERACTS WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST COMMON ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BUILD BRIEFLY TO SEVERE LEVELS THIS MORNING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT...PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGS
AN END TO THE RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

NO HAZAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR SEVERE STORM
OPERATIONS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE ALABAMA COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST
OF I-65 AND ALL OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.